IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/aut/wpaper/201710.html

Using Validated Measures of High School Academic Achievement to Predict University Success

Author

Listed:
  • Tim Maloney

    (School of Economics, Auckland University of Technology)

  • Kamakshi Singh

Abstract

Administrative data from a New Zealand university are used to validate the National Certificate of Educational Achievement (NCEA) Rank Score used in university admissions and scholarship decisions. We find no statistical evidence to corroborate the specific weighting scheme used in this index. For example, our regression analysis suggests that too much weight is attached to the lowest category of credits in predicting both successful completion outcomes and letter grades. To show the potential importance of this validated measure of high school achievement, we run several simulations on these first-year student outcomes at this university. We show that the use of an alternative, empirically-validated measure of NCEA results to select students would lead to only slight improvements in course completion rates and letter grades. These higher entry standards would lead to declines in the proportions of Pacifica students, but minimal impacts on the proportion of Māori students enrolled at this university.

Suggested Citation

  • Tim Maloney & Kamakshi Singh, 2017. "Using Validated Measures of High School Academic Achievement to Predict University Success," Working Papers 2017-10, Auckland University of Technology, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:aut:wpaper:201710
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.aut.ac.nz/__data/assets/pdf_file/0004/136075/Economics-WP-2017-10.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Julian R. Betts & Darlene Morell, 1999. "The Determinants of Undergraduate Grade Point Average: The Relative Importance of Family Background, High School Resources, and Peer Group Effects," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 34(2), pages 268-293.
    2. Liane Moneta-Koehler & Abigail M Brown & Kimberly A Petrie & Brent J Evans & Roger Chalkley, 2017. "The Limitations of the GRE in Predicting Success in Biomedical Graduate School," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 12(1), pages 1-17, January.
    3. Cohn, Elchanan & Cohn, Sharon & Balch, Donald C. & Bradley, James Jr., 2004. "Determinants of undergraduate GPAs: SAT scores, high-school GPA and high-school rank," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 23(6), pages 577-586, December.
    4. Joshua Angrist & Philip Oreopoulos & Tyler Williams, 2014. "When Opportunity Knocks, Who Answers?: New Evidence on College Achievement Awards," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 49(3), pages 572-610.
    5. Jill Johnes, 1997. "Inter-university variations in undergraduate non-completion rates: A statistical analysis by subject of study," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(3), pages 343-362.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Black, Sandra E. & Lincove, Jane & Cullinane, Jennifer & Veron, Rachel, 2015. "Can you leave high school behind?," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 52-63.
    2. Judith M. Delaney & Paul J. Devereux, 2020. "How Gender and Prior Disadvantage Predict Performance in College," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 51(2), pages 189-239.
    3. Cyrenne, Philippe & Chan, Alan, 2012. "High school grades and university performance: A case study," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 31(5), pages 524-542.
    4. By Vincenzo Carrieri & Marcello D’Amato & Roberto Zotti, 2015. "On the causal effects of selective admission policies on students’ performances: evidence from a quasi-experiment in a large Italian university," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 67(4), pages 1034-1056.
    5. Joseph J. Sabia, 2007. "Reading, Writing, And Sex: The Effect Of Losing Virginity On Academic Performance," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 45(4), pages 647-670, October.
    6. Vincenzo CARRIERI & Marcello D'AMATO & Roberto ZOTTI, 2013. "Selective Admission Tests and Students' Performances. Evidence from a Natural Experiment in a Large Italian University," CELPE Working Papers 0/00, CELPE - Centre of Labour Economics and Economic Policy, University of Salerno, Italy.
    7. Pengfei Jia & Tim Maloney, 2014. "Using Predictive Modelling to Identify Students at Risk of Poor University Outcomes," Working Papers 2014-03, Auckland University of Technology, Department of Economics.
    8. A. Abigail Payne & Justin Smith, 2020. "Big Fish, Small Pond: The Effect of Rank at Entry on Postsecondary Outcomes," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 86(4), pages 1475-1509, April.
    9. Sandra E. Black & Kalena E. Cortes & Jane Arnold Lincove, 2014. "Efficacy vs. Equity: What Happens When States Tinker with College Admissions in a Race-Blind Era?," NBER Working Papers 20804, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Linda Sealy & Christina Saunders & Jeffrey Blume & Roger Chalkley, 2019. "The GRE over the entire range of scores lacks predictive ability for PhD outcomes in the biomedical sciences," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 14(3), pages 1-17, March.
    11. Abdulmumini Baba Alfa & Abdulmumini Baba Alfa & Mohd Zaini Abd Karim, 2016. "Student Enthusiasm as a Key Determinant of their Performance," International Review of Management and Marketing, Econjournals, vol. 6(2), pages 237-245.
    12. Donald R. Haurin & Stuart S. Rosenthal, 2009. "Language, Agglomeration and Hispanic Homeownership," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 37(2), pages 155-183, June.
    13. Ellis, Jimmy R. & Gershenson, Seth, 2016. "LATE for the Meeting: Gender, Peer Advising, and College Success," IZA Discussion Papers 9956, IZA Network @ LISER.
    14. Lisa Barrow & Cecilia Elena Rouse & Amanda McFarland, 2020. "Who Has the Time? Community College Students’ Time-Use Response to Financial Incentives," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 48(1), pages 35-52, March.
    15. Márton Medgyesi & Temesváry, Z., 2013. "GINI DP 84: Conditional cash transfers in high- income OECD countries and their effects on human capital accumulation," GINI Discussion Papers 84, AIAS, Amsterdam Institute for Advanced Labour Studies.
    16. David Brasington & Don Haurin, 2005. "Capitalization of Parent, School, and Peer Group Components of School Quality into House Price," Departmental Working Papers 2005-04, Department of Economics, Louisiana State University.
    17. Xu Lin, 2010. "Identifying Peer Effects in Student Academic Achievement by Spatial Autoregressive Models with Group Unobservables," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 28(4), pages 825-860, October.
    18. Pedro de Araujo & James Murray, 2010. "Estimating the Effects of Dormitory Living on Student Performance," CAEPR Working Papers 2010-002, Center for Applied Economics and Policy Research, Department of Economics, Indiana University Bloomington.
    19. Cornwell, Christopher & Lee, Kyung Hee & Mustard, David B., 2006. "The Effects of State-Sponsored Merit Scholarships on Course Selection and Major Choice in College," IZA Discussion Papers 1953, IZA Network @ LISER.
    20. Helmuth Cremer & Dario Maldonado, 2013. "Mixed oligopoly in education," Documentos de Trabajo 10500, Universidad del Rosario.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • I21 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education - - - Analysis of Education
    • I23 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education - - - Higher Education; Research Institutions
    • I28 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education - - - Government Policy

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:aut:wpaper:201710. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Thomas Schober (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/fbautnz.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.