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Statistical Modeling of Stock Returns: Explanatory or Descriptive? A Historical Survey with Some Methodological Reflections

Author

Listed:
  • Phoebe Koundouri
  • Nikolaos Kourogenis

    () (Department of Banking and Financial Management, University of Piraeus.)

  • Nikitas Pittis

    () (University of Piraeus, Greece)

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is twofold: first, to survey the statistical models of stock returns that have been suggested in the finance literature since the middle of the twentieth century; second, to examine under the prism of the contemporary philosophy of science, which of the aforementioned models can be classified as explanatory and which as descriptive. Special emphasis is paid on tracing the interactions between the motivation for the birth of statistical models of stock returns in any given historical period and the concurrent changes of the theoretical paradigm in financial economics, as well as those of probability theory.

Suggested Citation

  • Phoebe Koundouri & Nikolaos Kourogenis & Nikitas Pittis, 2014. "Statistical Modeling of Stock Returns: Explanatory or Descriptive? A Historical Survey with Some Methodological Reflections," DEOS Working Papers 1410, Athens University of Economics and Business.
  • Handle: RePEc:aue:wpaper:1410
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Clark, Peter K, 1973. "A Subordinated Stochastic Process Model with Finite Variance for Speculative Prices," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 41(1), pages 135-155, January.
    2. Chamberlain, Gary & Rothschild, Michael, 1983. "Arbitrage, Factor Structure, and Mean-Variance Analysis on Large Asset Markets," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 51(5), pages 1281-1304, September.
    3. Fama, Eugene F & French, Kenneth R, 1992. " The Cross-Section of Expected Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(2), pages 427-465, June.
    4. Kon, Stanley J, 1984. " Models of Stock Returns-A Comparison," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 39(1), pages 147-165, March.
    5. Ross, Stephen A., 1976. "The arbitrage theory of capital asset pricing," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 341-360, December.
    6. Bollerslev, Tim, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
    7. Phoebe Koundouri & Nikolaos Kourogenis, 2011. "On the Distribution of Crop Yields: Does the Central Limit Theorem Apply?," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 93(5), pages 1341-1357.
    8. Praetz, Peter D, 1972. "The Distribution of Share Price Changes," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 45(1), pages 49-55, January.
    9. Chan, Louis K C & Hamao, Yasushi & Lakonishok, Josef, 1991. " Fundamentals and Stock Returns in Japan," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(5), pages 1739-1764, December.
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    12. Benoit Mandelbrot, 2015. "The Variation of Certain Speculative Prices," World Scientific Book Chapters,in: THE WORLD SCIENTIFIC HANDBOOK OF FUTURES MARKETS, chapter 3, pages 39-78 World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    13. Eugene F. Fama, 1965. "Portfolio Analysis in a Stable Paretian Market," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 11(3), pages 404-419, January.
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    17. Roll, Richard & Ross, Stephen A, 1980. " An Empirical Investigation of the Arbitrage Pricing Theory," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 35(5), pages 1073-1103, December.
    18. Nikolaos Kourogenis & Nikitas Pittis, 2008. "Testing for a unit root under errors with just barely infinite variance," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(6), pages 1066-1087, November.
    19. F. W. Taussig, 1921. "Is Market Price Determinate?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 35(3), pages 394-411.
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    Cited by:

    1. Kiviet Jan F., 2017. "Discriminating between (in)valid External Instruments and (in)valid Exclusion Restrictions," Journal of Econometric Methods, De Gruyter, vol. 6(1), pages 1-9, January.
    2. repec:cuf:journl:y:2018:v:19:i:1:kiviet:chen is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Jan F. Kiviet & Zhenxi Chen, 2016. "A critical appraisal of studies analyzing co-movement of international stock markets with a focus on East-Asian indices," Economic Growth Centre Working Paper Series 1606, Nanyang Technological University, School of Social Sciences, Economic Growth Centre.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Stock Returns; Statistical Model; Explanatory Model; Scientific Explanation; Market Efficiency; Brownian Motion.;

    JEL classification:

    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation

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