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VaR-Efficient Portfolios for a Class of Super- and Sub-Exponentially Decaying Assets Return Distributions

Author

Listed:
  • Y. Malevergne

    (Univ. Nice and Univ. Lyon)

  • D. Sornette

    (CNRS-Univ. Nice and UCLA)

Abstract

Using a family of modified Weibull distributions, encompassing both sub-exponentials and super-exponentials, to parameterize the marginal distributions of asset returns and their multivariate generalizations with Gaussian copulas, we offer exact formulas for the tails of the distribution $P(S)$ of returns $S$ of a portfolio of arbitrary composition of these assets. We find that the tail of $P(S)$ is also asymptotically a modified Weibull distribution with a characteristic scale $\chi$ function of the asset weights with different functional forms depending on the super- or sub-exponential behavior of the marginals and on the strength of the dependence between the assets. We then treat in details the problem of risk minimization using the Value-at-Risk and Expected-Shortfall which are shown to be (asymptotically) equivalent in this framework.

Suggested Citation

  • Y. Malevergne & D. Sornette, 2003. "VaR-Efficient Portfolios for a Class of Super- and Sub-Exponentially Decaying Assets Return Distributions," Papers physics/0301009, arXiv.org.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:physics/0301009
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. C. James Hueng & Ruey Yau, 2006. "Investor preferences and portfolio selection: is diversification an appropriate strategy?," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 6(3), pages 255-271.
    2. Roger Bowden, 2006. "The generalized value at risk admissible set: constraint consistency and portfolio outcomes," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 6(2), pages 159-171.
    3. Y. Malevergne & V. Pisarenko & D. Sornette, 2006. "The modified weibull distribution for asset returns: reply," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 6(6), pages 451-451.
    4. Chen, Qian & Gerlach, Richard H., 2013. "The two-sided Weibull distribution and forecasting financial tail risk," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 527-540.
    5. Chao Wang & Qian Chen & Richard Gerlach, 2017. "Bayesian Realized-GARCH Models for Financial Tail Risk Forecasting Incorporating Two-sided Weibull Distribution," Papers 1707.03715, arXiv.org.
    6. Ibragimov, Rustam & Walden, Johan, 2008. "Portfolio diversification under local and moderate deviations from power laws," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(2), pages 594-599, April.
    7. Jan-Christian Gerlach & Jerome Kreuser & Didier Sornette, 2020. "Awareness of crash risk improves Kelly strategies in simulated financial time series," Papers 2004.09368, arXiv.org.
    8. Saralees Nadarajah & Samuel Kotz, 2006. "The modified Weibull distribution for asset returns," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 6(6), pages 449-449.
    9. Vicente Medina Martínez & Ángel Pardo Tornero, 2012. "Stylized facts of CO2 returns," Working Papers. Serie AD 2012-14, Instituto Valenciano de Investigaciones Económicas, S.A. (Ivie).

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