IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/arx/papers/2606.15748.html

Estimating Demand for a New Product

Author

Listed:
  • Sizhong Sun

Abstract

This paper develops an approach for estimating demand for a new product. Taking willingness to pay (WTP) as primitive, it establishes a general and yet analytically simple demand function, and proposes an estimation procedure that consistently recovers the underlying demand function from the WTP data. Monte Carlo simulations find the estimation procedure works well in identifying the demand function. This approach complements existing methods of demand estimation, and can be applied both within and outside academia, for example in teaching economics, for a business to launch new products, and for policymakers to conduct non-market valuation.

Suggested Citation

  • Sizhong Sun, 2026. "Estimating Demand for a New Product," Papers 2606.15748, arXiv.org.
  • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2606.15748
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://arxiv.org/pdf/2606.15748
    File Function: Latest version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kaat de Corte & John Cairns & Richard Grieve, 2021. "Stated versus revealed preferences: An approach to reduce bias," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(5), pages 1095-1123, May.
    2. Richard T. Carson, 2012. "Contingent Valuation: A Practical Alternative When Prices Aren't Available," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 26(4), pages 27-42, Fall.
    3. Ramajo Hernandez, Julian, 1994. "Curvature Restrictions on Flexible Functional Forms: An Application of the Minflex Laurent Almost Ideal Demand System to the Pattern of Spanish Demand, 1954-1987," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 12(4), pages 431-436, October.
    4. Steven T. Berry & Philip A. Haile, 2014. "Identification in Differentiated Products Markets Using Market Level Data," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 82, pages 1749-1797, September.
    5. Deschamps, Philippe J., 1998. "Full maximum likelihood estimation of dynamic demand models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 82(2), pages 335-359, February.
    6. Diewert, W E & Wales, T J, 1988. "Normalized Quadratic Systems of Consumer Demand Functions," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 6(3), pages 303-312, July.
    7. Barnett, William A. & Lee, Yul W. & Wolfe, Michael D., 1985. "The three-dimensional global properties of the minflex laurent, generalized leontief, and translog flexible functional forms," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 30(1-2), pages 3-31.
    8. Douglas Fisher & Adrian R. Fleissig & Apostolos Serletis, 2006. "An Empirical Comparison of Flexible Demand System Functional Forms," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Money And The Economy, chapter 13, pages 247-277, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    9. Franziska Voelckner, 2006. "An empirical comparison of methods for measuring consumers’ willingness to pay," Marketing Letters, Springer, vol. 17(2), pages 137-149, April.
    10. W.A. Barnett & J.M. Binner, 2004. "The Global Properties of the Minflex Laurent, Generalized Leontief, and Translog Flexible Functional Forms," Contributions to Economic Analysis, in: Functional Structure and Approximation in Econometrics, pages 79-97, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
    11. Green, Paul E & Srinivasan, V, 1978. "Conjoint Analysis in Consumer Research: Issues and Outlook," Journal of Consumer Research, Journal of Consumer Research Inc., vol. 5(2), pages 103-123, Se.
    12. Holt, Matthew T., 2002. "Inverse demand systems and choice of functional form," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 46(1), pages 117-142, January.
    13. Klein, Roger & Sherman, Robert, 1997. "Estimating new product demand from biased survey data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 76(1-2), pages 53-76.
    14. Jonas Schmidt & Tammo H. A. Bijmolt, 2020. "Accurately measuring willingness to pay for consumer goods: a meta-analysis of the hypothetical bias," Journal of the Academy of Marketing Science, Springer, vol. 48(3), pages 499-518, May.
    15. Diewert, W. E., 1973. "Functional forms for profit and transformation functions," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 6(3), pages 284-316, June.
    16. Freyberger, Joachim, 2015. "Asymptotic theory for differentiated products demand models with many markets," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 185(1), pages 162-181.
    17. Myrto Kalouptsidi, 2012. "From market shares to consumer types: Duality in differentiated product demand estimation," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(2), pages 333-342, March.
    18. Christensen, Laurits R & Jorgenson, Dale W & Lau, Lawrence J, 1975. "Transcendental Logarithmic Utility Functions," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 65(3), pages 367-383, June.
    19. Amit Gandhi & Zhentong Lu & Xiaoxia Shi, 2023. "Estimating demand for differentiated products with zeroes in market share data," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 14(2), pages 381-418, May.
    20. Steve Berry & Oliver B. Linton & Ariel Pakes, 2004. "Limit Theorems for Estimating the Parameters of Differentiated Product Demand Systems," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 71(3), pages 613-654.
    21. Joo Heon Park & Douglas L. MacLachlan, 2008. "Estimating Willingness to Pay with Exaggeration Bias-Corrected Contingent Valuation Method," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 27(4), pages 691-698, 07-08.
    22. Sun, Sizhong, 2022. "The demand for a COVID-19 vaccine," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 46(C).
    23. Deaton, Angus S & Muellbauer, John, 1980. "An Almost Ideal Demand System," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 70(3), pages 312-326, June.
    24. Berry, Steven & Levinsohn, James & Pakes, Ariel, 1995. "Automobile Prices in Market Equilibrium," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 63(4), pages 841-890, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Sun, Sizhong, 2022. "The demand for a COVID-19 vaccine," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 46(C).
    2. Apostolos Serletis & Libo Xu, 2020. "Demand systems with heteroscedastic disturbances," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 58(4), pages 1913-1921, April.
    3. Serletis, Apostolos & Xu, Libo, 2020. "Functional monetary aggregates, monetary policy, and business cycles," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).
    4. Barnett, William A. & Serletis, Apostolos, 2008. "Consumer preferences and demand systems," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 147(2), pages 210-224, December.
    5. Barnett, William A. & Serletis, Apostolos, 2008. "Measuring Consumer Preferences and Estimating Demand Systems," MPRA Paper 12318, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. William Barnett & Ousmane Seck, 2006. "Rotterdam vs Almost Ideal Models: Will the Best Demand Specification Please Stand Up?," WORKING PAPERS SERIES IN THEORETICAL AND APPLIED ECONOMICS 200605, University of Kansas, Department of Economics.
    7. Jin, Man, 2018. "Measuring substitution in China's monetary-assets demand system," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 117-132.
    8. LaFrance, Jeffrey T., 2008. "The structure of US food demand," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 147(2), pages 336-349, December.
    9. Serletis, Apostolos & Xu, Libo, 2021. "The welfare cost of inflation," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).
    10. William A. Barnett & Ousmane Seck, 2008. "Rotterdam model versus almost ideal demand system: will the best specification please stand up?," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(6), pages 795-824.
    11. Chang, Dongfeng & Serletis, Apostolos, 2012. "Imposing local curvature in the QUAIDS," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 115(1), pages 41-43.
    12. Jeffrey LaFrance & Rulon Pope, 2008. "The Generalized Quadratic Expenditure System," Working Papers 2008-27, School of Economic Sciences, Washington State University.
    13. Douglas Fisher & Adrian R. Fleissig & Apostolos Serletis, 2006. "An Empirical Comparison of Flexible Demand System Functional Forms," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Money And The Economy, chapter 13, pages 247-277, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    14. Adrian R. Fleissig, 2016. "Changing Trends in U.S. Alcohol Demand," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 44(3), pages 263-276, September.
    15. Iaria, Alessandro & ,, 2020. "Identification and Estimation of Demand for Bundles," CEPR Discussion Papers 14363, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    16. Olorunfemi Sola, 2013. "Demand for food in Ondo state, Nigeria: Using quadratic almost ideal demand system," E3 Journal of Business Management and Economics., E3 Journals, vol. 4(1), pages 001-019.
    17. Serletis, Apostolos & Shahmoradi, Asghar, 2010. "Consumption effects of government purchases," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 892-905, September.
    18. Nurul Hossain, A.K.M. & Serletis, Apostolos, 2017. "A century of interfuel substitution," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 8(C), pages 28-42.
    19. Doi, Naoshi, 2022. "A simple method to estimate discrete-type random coefficients logit models," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    20. Bjarne Jensen & Paul Boer & Jan Daal & Peter Jensen, 2011. "Global restrictions on the parameters of the CDES indirect utility function," Journal of Economics, Springer, vol. 102(3), pages 217-235, April.

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2606.15748. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: arXiv administrators (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://arxiv.org/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.