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Prior-Free Information Design

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  • Maxwell Rosenthal

Abstract

This paper introduces a prior-free framework for information design based on partial identification and applies it to robust causal inference. The decision maker observes the distribution of signals generated by an information structure and ranks alternatives by their worst-case payoff over the state distributions consistent with those signals. We characterize the set of robustly implementable actions and show that each can be implemented by an information structure that withholds at most one dimension of information from the decision maker. In the potential outcomes model, every treatment is implementable via an experiment that is almost fully informative.

Suggested Citation

  • Maxwell Rosenthal, 2025. "Prior-Free Information Design," Papers 2511.18647, arXiv.org.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2511.18647
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Charles F. Manski, 2013. "Response to the Review of ‘Public Policy in an Uncertain World’," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 0, pages 412-415, August.
    2. Charles F. Manski, 1997. "Monotone Treatment Response," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 65(6), pages 1311-1334, November.
    3. Tamer, Elie, 2010. "Partial Identification in Econometrics," Scholarly Articles 34728615, Harvard University Department of Economics.
    4. Elie Tamer, 2010. "Partial Identification in Econometrics," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 2(1), pages 167-195, September.
    5. Manski, Charles F., 2013. "Public Policy in an Uncertain World: Analysis and Decisions," Economics Books, Harvard University Press, number 9780674066892, Spring.
    6. Bergemann, Dirk & Morris, Stephen, 2016. "Bayes correlated equilibrium and the comparison of information structures in games," Theoretical Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 11(2), May.
    7. Maxwell Rosenthal, 2025. "Prior-Free Blackwell," Papers 2510.08709, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2025.
    8. Brendan Kline & Elie Tamer, 2023. "Recent Developments in Partial Identification," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 15(1), pages 125-150, September.
    9. Manski, Charles F, 1990. "Nonparametric Bounds on Treatment Effects," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(2), pages 319-323, May.
    10. Li, Jian & Zhou, Junjie, 2016. "Blackwell's informativeness ranking with uncertainty-averse preferences," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 18-29.
    11. Dirk Bergemann & Stephen Morris, 2019. "Information Design: A Unified Perspective," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 57(1), pages 44-95, March.
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