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A Predictive Framework Integrating Multi-Scale Volatility Components and Time-Varying Quantile Spillovers: Evidence from the Cryptocurrency Market

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  • Sicheng Fu
  • Fangfang Zhu
  • Xiangdong Liu

Abstract

This paper investigates the dynamics of risk transmission in cryptocurrency markets and proposes a novel framework for volatility forecasting. The framework uncovers two key empirical facts: the asymmetric amplification of volatility spillovers in both tails, and a structural decoupling between market size and systemic importance. Building on these insights, we develop a state-adaptive volatility forecasting model by extracting time-varying quantile spillover features across different volatility components. These features are embedded into an extended Log-HAR structure, resulting in the SA-Log-HAR model. Empirical results demonstrate that the proposed model outperforms benchmark alternatives in both in-sample fitting and out-of-sample forecasting, particularly in capturing extreme volatility and tail risks with greater robustness and explanatory power.

Suggested Citation

  • Sicheng Fu & Fangfang Zhu & Xiangdong Liu, 2025. "A Predictive Framework Integrating Multi-Scale Volatility Components and Time-Varying Quantile Spillovers: Evidence from the Cryptocurrency Market," Papers 2507.22409, arXiv.org.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2507.22409
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    5. Fulvio Corsi, 2009. "A Simple Approximate Long-Memory Model of Realized Volatility," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 7(2), pages 174-196, Spring.
    6. Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July.
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