IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/arx/papers/2505.10154.html

The Impact of Node Addition and Deletion on Network Production Fluctuations

Author

Listed:
  • Mahdi Kohan Sefidi

Abstract

Production networks, dynamic systems of firms linked through input-output relationships, transmit microeconomic shocks into macroeconomic fluctuations. While prior studies often assume static networks, real-world economies feature continuous firm entry (node addition) and exit (node deletion). We develop a probabilistic model to analyze how these dynamics affect production volatility and network resilience. Integrating Leontief input-output frameworks with controllability theory. By quantifying fluctuations as expected values under probabilistic node dynamics, we identify trade-offs between adaptability and stability. Methodologically, we unify Kalman rank criteria and minimum input theory, offering policymakers insights to balance innovation-driven entry with safeguards against destabilizing exits.

Suggested Citation

  • Mahdi Kohan Sefidi, 2025. "The Impact of Node Addition and Deletion on Network Production Fluctuations," Papers 2505.10154, arXiv.org.
  • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2505.10154
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://arxiv.org/pdf/2505.10154
    File Function: Latest version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Thijs ten Raa, 2009. "Dynamic Input–Output Analysis with Distributed Activities," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Input–Output Economics: Theory And Applications Featuring Asian Economies, chapter 13, pages 197-224, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    2. Benjamin Golub & Matthew Elliott, 2022. "Networks and Economic Fragility," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 14(1), pages 665-696, August.
    3. David Rezza Baqaee, 2018. "Cascading Failures in Production Networks," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 86(5), pages 1819-1838, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Elliott, M. & Jackson, M. O., 2026. "Supply Chain Disruptions, the Structure of Production Networks, and the Impact of Globalization," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 2625, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    2. Peydró, José-Luis & Jiménez, Gabriel & Kenan, Huremovic & Moral-Benito, Enrique & Vega-Redondo, Fernando, 2020. "Production and financial networks in interplay: Crisis evidence from supplier-customer and credit registers," CEPR Discussion Papers 15277, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    3. David Rezza Baqaee & Emmanuel Farhi, 2019. "The Macroeconomic Impact of Microeconomic Shocks: Beyond Hulten's Theorem," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 87(4), pages 1155-1203, July.
    4. Alessandro Ferrari & Lorenzo Pesaresi, 2025. "Specialization, Complexity & Resilience in Supply Chains," Papers 2509.08981, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2026.
    5. Altinoglu, Levent, 2021. "The origins of aggregate fluctuations in a credit network economy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 316-334.
    6. Thomas J. Sargent & John Stachurski, 2022. "Economic Networks: Theory and Computation," Papers 2203.11972, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2022.
    7. David Rezza Baqaee & Emmanuel Farhi, 2018. "Macroeconomics with Heterogeneous Agents and Input-Output Networks," NBER Working Papers 24684, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Alex Nikolsko‐Rzhevskyy & Oleksandr Talavera & Nam Vu, 2023. "The flood that caused a drought," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 61(4), pages 965-981, October.
    9. Kilian Huber, 2015. "The Persistence of a Banking Crisis," Discussion Papers 1532, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM).
    10. Fabio Ghironi, 2018. "Macro needs micro," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 34(1-2), pages 195-218.
    11. Jesús Fernández-Villaverde & Tomohide Mineyama & Dongho Song, 2026. "How Globalization Unravels: A Ricardian Model of Endogenous Trade Policy," NBER Working Papers 34672, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Hinterlang, Natascha & Jäger, Marius & Stähler, Nikolai & Strobel, Johannes, 2024. "On curbing the rise in energy prices: An examination of different mitigation approaches," Discussion Papers 09/2024, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    13. Ernest Liu & Aleh Tsyvinski, 2021. "Dynamical Structure and Spectral Properties of Input-Output Networks," Working Papers 2021-13, Princeton University. Economics Department..
    14. Ernesto Pasten & Raphael S. Schoenle & Michael Weber & Michael Weber, 2017. "Price Rigidities and the Granular Origins of Aggregate Fluctuations," CESifo Working Paper Series 6619, CESifo.
    15. Vasco M Carvalho & Makoto Nirei & Yukiko U Saito & Alireza Tahbaz-Salehi, 2021. "Supply Chain Disruptions: Evidence from the Great East Japan Earthquake," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 136(2), pages 1255-1321.
    16. Andrew T. Foerster & Andreas Hornstein & Pierre-Daniel G. Sarte & Mark W. Watson, 2022. "Aggregate Implications of Changing Sectoral Trends," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 130(12), pages 3286-3333.
    17. Goya, Daniel, 2021. "The network effect of Chinese competition on what domestic suppliers produce," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
    18. Längle, Katharina & Xu, Ankai & Tian, Ruijie, 2021. "Assessing the supply chain effect of natural disasters: Evidence from Chinese manufacturers," WTO Staff Working Papers ERSD-2021-13, World Trade Organization (WTO), Economic Research and Statistics Division.
    19. Levent Altinoglu, 2018. "The Origins of Aggregate Fluctuations in a Credit Network Economy," 2018 Meeting Papers 626, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    20. Vallès Codina, Oriol, 2023. "Business cycles, sectoral price stabilization, and climate change mitigation: A model of multi-sector growth in the tradition of the Bielefeld disequilibrium approach," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 216(C), pages 636-653.

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2505.10154. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: arXiv administrators (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://arxiv.org/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.