IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/arx/papers/2505.08615.html

On Selection of Cross-Section Averages in Non-stationary Environments

Author

Listed:
  • Jan Ditzen
  • Ovidijus Stauskas

Abstract

Information criteria (IC) have been widely used in factor models to estimate an unknown number of latent factors. It has recently been shown that IC perform well in Common Correlated Effects (CCE) and related setups in selecting a set of cross-section averages (CAs) sufficient for the factor space under stationary factors. As CAs can proxy non-stationary factors, it is tempting to claim such generality of IC, too. We show formally and in simulations that IC have a severe underselection issue even under very mild forms of factor non-stationarity, which goes against the sentiment in the literature.

Suggested Citation

  • Jan Ditzen & Ovidijus Stauskas, 2025. "On Selection of Cross-Section Averages in Non-stationary Environments," Papers 2505.08615, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2025.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2505.08615
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://arxiv.org/pdf/2505.08615
    File Function: Latest version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Karabiyik, Hande & Reese, Simon & Westerlund, Joakim, 2017. "On the role of the rank condition in CCE estimation of factor-augmented panel regressions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 197(1), pages 60-64.
    2. M. Hashem Pesaran, 2006. "Estimation and Inference in Large Heterogeneous Panels with a Multifactor Error Structure," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 74(4), pages 967-1012, July.
    3. Guowei Cui & Milda NorkutÄ— & Vasilis Sarafidis & Takashi Yamagata, 2022. "Two-stage instrumental variable estimation of linear panel data models with interactive effects [Eigenvalue ratio test for the number of factors]," The Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 25(2), pages 340-361.
    4. Alessandro Morico & Ovidijus Stauskas, 2025. "Robust Tests for Factor-Augmented Regressions with an Application to the novel EA-MD-QD Dataset," Papers 2504.08455, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2025.
    5. Jostein Paulsen, 1984. "Order Determination Of Multivariate Autoregressive Time Series With Unit Roots," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 5(2), pages 115-127, March.
    6. Michael W. McCracken & Serena Ng, 2016. "FRED-MD: A Monthly Database for Macroeconomic Research," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(4), pages 574-589, October.
    7. Ovidijus Stauskas & Ignace De Vos, 2025. "Handling Distinct Correlated Effects with CCE," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 87(2), pages 448-475, April.
    8. De Vos, Ignace & Stauskas, Ovidijus, 2024. "Cross-section bootstrap for CCE regressions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 240(1).
    9. Magdalinos, Tassos & Phillips, Peter C.B., 2009. "Limit Theory For Cointegrated Systems With Moderately Integrated And Moderately Explosive Regressors," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 25(2), pages 482-526, April.
    10. Matteo Barigozzi & Claudio Lissona & Lorenzo Tonni, 2024. "Large datasets for the Euro Area and its member countries and the dynamic effects of the common monetary policy," Papers 2410.05082, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2025.
    11. Jushan Bai & Serena Ng, 2002. "Determining the Number of Factors in Approximate Factor Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 70(1), pages 191-221, January.
    12. Jushan Bai & Serena Ng, 2004. "A PANIC Attack on Unit Roots and Cointegration," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 72(4), pages 1127-1177, July.
    13. Artūras Juodis, 2022. "A regularization approach to common correlated effects estimation," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 37(4), pages 788-810, June.
    14. Michael W. McCracken & Serena Ng, 2021. "FRED-QD: A Quarterly Database for Macroeconomic Research," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 103(1), pages 1-44, January.
    15. Luca Margaritella & Joakim Westerlund, 2023. "Using information criteria to select averages in CCE," The Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 26(3), pages 405-421.
    16. Massacci, Daniele & Kapetanios, George, 2024. "Forecasting in factor augmented regressions under structural change," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 62-76.
    17. Pesaran, M. Hashem & Tosetti, Elisa, 2011. "Large panels with common factors and spatial correlation," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 161(2), pages 182-202, April.
    18. Ovidijus Stauskas, 2023. "Complete Theory for CCE Under Heterogeneous Slopes and General Unknown Factors," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 85(2), pages 283-303, April.
    19. Seung C. Ahn & Alex R. Horenstein, 2013. "Eigenvalue Ratio Test for the Number of Factors," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 81(3), pages 1203-1227, May.
    20. Kapetanios, G. & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Yamagata, T., 2011. "Panels with non-stationary multifactor error structures," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 160(2), pages 326-348, February.
    21. Simon Reese & Joakim Westerlund, 2016. "Panicca: Panic on Cross‐Section Averages," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(6), pages 961-981, September.
    22. Hande Karabiyik & Joakim Westerlund, 2021. "Forecasting using cross-section average–augmented time series regressions," The Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 24(2), pages 315-333.
    23. repec:hal:journl:peer-00796743 is not listed on IDEAS
    24. Westerlund, Joakim & Petrova, Yana, 2018. "Asymptotic collinearity in CCE estimation of interactive effects models," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 331-337.
    25. Yongcheol Shin & Laura Serlenga, 2007. "Gravity models of intra-EU trade: application of the CCEP-HT estimation in heterogeneous panels with unobserved common time-specific factors," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(2), pages 361-381.
    26. Joakim Westerlund, 2018. "CCE in panels with general unknown factors," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 21(3), pages 264-276, October.
    27. Ovidijus Stauskas & Joakim Westerlund, 2022. "Tests of Equal Forecasting Accuracy for Nested Models with Estimated CCE Factors," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(4), pages 1745-1758, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Alessandro Morico & Ovidijus Stauskas, 2025. "Robust Tests for Factor-Augmented Regressions with an Application to the novel EA-MD-QD Dataset," Papers 2504.08455, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2025.
    2. De Vos, Ignace & Stauskas, Ovidijus, 2024. "Cross-section bootstrap for CCE regressions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 240(1).
    3. Ovidijus Stauskas & Ignace De Vos, 2025. "Handling Distinct Correlated Effects with CCE," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 87(2), pages 448-475, April.
    4. repec:cam:camjip:2429 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Gioldasis, Georgios & Musolesi, Antonio & Simioni, Michel, 2023. "Interactive R&D spillovers: An estimation strategy based on forecasting-driven model selection," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 144-169.
    6. Maximilian Ruecker & Michael Vogt & Oliver Linton & Christopher Walsh, 2022. "Estimation and Inference in High-Dimensional Panel Data Models with Interactive Fixed Effects," Papers 2206.12152, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2025.
    7. Stauskas, Ovidijus, 2021. "Uniform Theory for CCE under Heterogeneous Slopes and General Unknown Factors," Working Papers 2021:9, Lund University, Department of Economics.
    8. Georgios Gioldasis & Antonio Musolesi & Michel Simioni, 2021. "Interactive R&D Spillovers: An estimation strategy based on forecasting-driven model selection," SEEDS Working Papers 0621, SEEDS, Sustainability Environmental Economics and Dynamics Studies, revised Jun 2021.
    9. Mao, Guangyu & Shen, Yan, 2019. "Bubbles or fundamentals? Modeling provincial house prices in China allowing for cross-sectional dependence," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 53-64.
    10. Georgios Gioldasis & Antonio Musolesi & Michel Simioni, 2021. "Interactive R&D Spillovers: an estimation strategy based on forecasting-driven model selection," Working Papers hal-03224910, HAL.
    11. Luca Margaritella & Joakim Westerlund, 2023. "Using information criteria to select averages in CCE," The Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 26(3), pages 405-421.
    12. Ryan Rafaty & Geoffroy Dolphin & Felix Pretis, 2020. "Carbon pricing and the elasticity of CO2 emissions," Working Papers EPRG2035, Energy Policy Research Group, Cambridge Judge Business School, University of Cambridge.
    13. Ovidijus Stauskas, 2023. "Complete Theory for CCE Under Heterogeneous Slopes and General Unknown Factors," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 85(2), pages 283-303, April.
    14. Alexander Chudik & M. Hashem Pesaran, 2013. "Large panel data models with cross-sectional dependence: a survey," Globalization Institute Working Papers 153, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    15. Moon, Hyungsik Roger & Weidner, Martin, 2017. "Dynamic Linear Panel Regression Models With Interactive Fixed Effects," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 33(1), pages 158-195, February.
    16. Ergemen, Yunus Emre, 2023. "Parametric estimation of long memory in factor models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 235(2), pages 1483-1499.
    17. Tim Buyse & Freddy Heylen & Ruben Schoonackers, 2015. "On The Role Of Public Policies And Wage Formation For Private Investment In R&D: A Long-Run Panel Analysis," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 15/911, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
    18. Musolesi, Antonio & Prete, Giada Andrea & Simioni, Michel, 2022. "Is infrastructure capital really productive? Non-parametric modeling and data-driven model selection in a cross-sectionally dependent panel framework," TSE Working Papers 22-1335, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE).
    19. Hyungsik Roger Roger Moon & Martin Weidner, 2013. "Dynamic linear panel regression models with interactive fixed effects," CeMMAP working papers 63/13, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    20. Cornevin, Antoine & Corrales, Juan Sebastian & Mojica, Juan Pablo Angel, 2024. "Do tax revenues track economic growth? Comparing panel data estimators," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    21. George Kapetanios & Laura Serlenga & Yongcheol Shin, 2024. "Testing for correlation between the regressors and factor loadings in heterogeneous panels with interactive effects," Advanced Studies in Theoretical and Applied Econometrics, in: Subal C. Kumbhakar & Robin C. Sickles & Hung-Jen Wang (ed.), Advances in Applied Econometrics, pages 147-195, Springer.

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2505.08615. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: arXiv administrators (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://arxiv.org/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.