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The Association of Opening K-12 Schools with the Spread of COVID-19 in the United States: County-Level Panel Data Analysis

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  • Victor Chernozhukov
  • Hiroyuki Kasahara
  • Paul Schrimpf

Abstract

This paper empirically examines how the opening of K-12 schools and colleges is associated with the spread of COVID-19 using county-level panel data in the United States. Using data on foot traffic and K-12 school opening plans, we analyze how an increase in visits to schools and opening schools with different teaching methods (in-person, hybrid, and remote) is related to the 2-weeks forward growth rate of confirmed COVID-19 cases. Our debiased panel data regression analysis with a set of county dummies, interactions of state and week dummies, and other controls shows that an increase in visits to both K-12 schools and colleges is associated with a subsequent increase in case growth rates. The estimates indicate that fully opening K-12 schools with in-person learning is associated with a 5 (SE = 2) percentage points increase in the growth rate of cases. We also find that the positive association of K-12 school visits or in-person school openings with case growth is stronger for counties that do not require staff to wear masks at schools. These results have a causal interpretation in a structural model with unobserved county and time confounders. Sensitivity analysis shows that the baseline results are robust to timing assumptions and alternative specifications.

Suggested Citation

  • Victor Chernozhukov & Hiroyuki Kasahara & Paul Schrimpf, 2021. "The Association of Opening K-12 Schools with the Spread of COVID-19 in the United States: County-Level Panel Data Analysis," Papers 2102.10453, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2021.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2102.10453
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    1. Serina Chang & Emma Pierson & Pang Wei Koh & Jaline Gerardin & Beth Redbird & David Grusky & Jure Leskovec, 2021. "Mobility network models of COVID-19 explain inequities and inform reopening," Nature, Nature, vol. 589(7840), pages 82-87, January.
    2. Wright, Austin L. & Sonin, Konstantin & Driscoll, Jesse & Wilson, Jarnickae, 2020. "Poverty and economic dislocation reduce compliance with COVID-19 shelter-in-place protocols," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 180(C), pages 544-554.
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    4. Dan Goldhaber & Scott A. Imberman & Katharine O. Strunk & Bryant G. Hopkins & Nate Brown & Erica Harbatkin & Tara Kilbride, 2022. "To What Extent Does In‐Person Schooling Contribute To The Spread Of Covid‐19? Evidence From Michigan And Washington," Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(1), pages 318-349, January.
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    1. Marc Diederichs & Reyn van Ewijk & Ingo E. Isphording & Nico Pestel, 2022. "Schools under mandatory testing can mitigate the spread of SARS-CoV-2," Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, vol. 119(26), pages 2201724119-, June.
    2. Lattanzio, Salvatore, 2024. "Schools and the transmission of Sars-Cov-2: Evidence from Italy," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    3. Kisho Hoshi & Hiroyuki Kasahara & Ryo Makioka & Michio Suzuki & Satoshi Tanaka, 2021. "Trade-off between job losses and the spread of COVID-19 in Japan," The Japanese Economic Review, Springer, vol. 72(4), pages 683-716, October.
    4. Emanuele Amodio & Michele Battisti & Antonio Francesco Gravina & Andrea Mario Lavezzi & Giuseppe Maggio, 2023. "School‐age vaccination, school openings and Covid‐19 diffusion," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(5), pages 1084-1100, May.
    5. Jara, Karen Trujillo & Hernandez, Jose Ignacio & Mouter, Niek & Brouwer, Werner & van Exel, Job, 2025. "Preferences of citizens in Peru for school opening during a public-health crisis: A participatory value evaluation study," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 365(C).
    6. Boucekkine, Raouf & Chakraborty, Shankha & Goenka, Aditya & Liu, Lin, 2024. "Economic epidemiological modelling: A progress report," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
    7. Koppa, Vijetha & West, Jeremy, 2022. "School reopenings, COVID-19, and employment," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 212(C).
    8. André Kurmann & Etienne Lalé, 2021. "School Closures and Effective In-Person Learning during COVID-19: When, Where, and for Whom," School of Economics Working Paper Series 2021-18, LeBow College of Business, Drexel University.
    9. Amodio, Emanuele & Battisti, Michele & Kourtellos, Andros & Maggio, Giuseppe & Maida, Carmelo Massimo, 2022. "Schools opening and Covid-19 diffusion: Evidence from geolocalized microdata," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
    10. Dan Goldhaber & Scott A. Imberman & Katharine O. Strunk & Bryant G. Hopkins & Nate Brown & Erica Harbatkin & Tara Kilbride, 2022. "To What Extent Does In‐Person Schooling Contribute To The Spread Of Covid‐19? Evidence From Michigan And Washington," Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(1), pages 318-349, January.

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