IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/arx/papers/1911.07313.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Mathematical Modeling of Systemic Risk in Financial Networks: Managing Default Contagion and Fire Sales

Author

Listed:
  • Daniel Ritter

Abstract

As impressively shown by the financial crisis in 2007/08, contagion effects in financial networks harbor a great threat for the stability of the entire system. Without sufficient capital requirements for banks and other financial institutions, shocks that are locally confined at first can spread through the entire system and be significantly amplified by various contagion channels. The aim of this thesis is thus to investigate in detail two selected contagion channels of this so-called systemic risk, provide mathematical models and derive consequences for the systemic risk management of financial institutions. The first contagion channel we consider is default contagion. The underlying effect is here that insolvent institutions cannot service their debt or other financial obligations anymore - at least partially. Debtors and other directly impacted parties in the system are thus forced to write off their losses and can possibly be driven into insolvency themselves due to their incurred financial losses. This on the other hand starts a new round in the default contagion process. In our model we simplistically describe each institution by all the financial positions it is exposed to as well as its initial capital. In doing so, our starting point is the work of Detering et al. (2017) - a model for contagion in unweighted networks - which particularly considers the exact network configuration to be random and derives asymptotic results for large networks. We extend this model such that weighted networks can be considered and an application to financial networks becomes possible. More precisely, for any given initial shock we deduce an explicit asymptotic expression for the total damage caused in the system by contagion and provide a necessary and sufficient criterion for an unshocked financial system to be stable against small shocks. Moreover, ...

Suggested Citation

  • Daniel Ritter, 2019. "Mathematical Modeling of Systemic Risk in Financial Networks: Managing Default Contagion and Fire Sales," Papers 1911.07313, arXiv.org.
  • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:1911.07313
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://arxiv.org/pdf/1911.07313
    File Function: Latest version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Poledna, Sebastian & Molina-Borboa, José Luis & Martínez-Jaramillo, Serafín & van der Leij, Marco & Thurner, Stefan, 2015. "The multi-layer network nature of systemic risk and its implications for the costs of financial crises," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 20(C), pages 70-81.
    2. Wagner, Wolf, 2010. "Diversification at financial institutions and systemic crises," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 373-386, July.
    3. Gu, Gao-Feng & Chen, Wei & Zhou, Wei-Xing, 2008. "Empirical shape function of limit-order books in the Chinese stock market," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 387(21), pages 5182-5188.
    4. Oliver Kley & Claudia Klüppelberg & Gesine Reinert, 2016. "Risk in a Large Claims Insurance Market with Bipartite Graph Structure," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 64(5), pages 1159-1176, October.
    5. in ’t Veld, Daan & van Lelyveld, Iman, 2014. "Finding the core: Network structure in interbank markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 27-40.
    6. Khandani, Amir E. & Lo, Andrew W., 2011. "What happened to the quants in August 2007? Evidence from factors and transactions data," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 1-46, February.
    7. Grzegorz Hałaj & Christoffer Kok, 2013. "Assessing interbank contagion using simulated networks," Computational Management Science, Springer, vol. 10(2), pages 157-186, June.
    8. E. Kromer & L. Overbeck & K. Zilch, 2016. "Systemic risk measures on general measurable spaces," Mathematical Methods of Operations Research, Springer;Gesellschaft für Operations Research (GOR);Nederlands Genootschap voor Besliskunde (NGB), vol. 84(2), pages 323-357, October.
    9. Ibragimov, Rustam & Jaffee, Dwight & Walden, Johan, 2011. "Diversification disasters," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(2), pages 333-348, February.
    10. L. C. G. Rogers & L. A. M. Veraart, 2013. "Failure and Rescue in an Interbank Network," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 59(4), pages 882-898, April.
    11. Thomas R Hurd & James P Gleeson & Sergey Melnik, 2017. "A framework for analyzing contagion in assortative banking networks," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 12(2), pages 1-20, February.
    12. Langfield, Sam & Liu, Zijun & Ota, Tomohiro, 2014. "Mapping the UK interbank system," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 288-303.
    13. Hoffmann, Hannes & Meyer-Brandis, Thilo & Svindland, Gregor, 2016. "Risk-consistent conditional systemic risk measures," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 126(7), pages 2014-2037.
    14. Hannes Hoffmann & Thilo Meyer-Brandis & Gregor Svindland, 2016. "Risk-Consistent Conditional Systemic Risk Measures," Papers 1609.07897, arXiv.org.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Nils Detering & Thilo Meyer-Brandis & Konstantinos Panagiotou & Daniel Ritter, 2020. "Suffocating Fire Sales," Papers 2006.08110, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2021.
    2. Fabio Caccioli & Paolo Barucca & Teruyoshi Kobayashi, 2018. "Network models of financial systemic risk: a review," Journal of Computational Social Science, Springer, vol. 1(1), pages 81-114, January.
    3. Paul Glasserman & Peyton Young, 2015. "Contagion in Financial Networks," Economics Series Working Papers 764, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    4. Marco Bardoscia & Paolo Barucca & Stefano Battiston & Fabio Caccioli & Giulio Cimini & Diego Garlaschelli & Fabio Saracco & Tiziano Squartini & Guido Caldarelli, 2021. "The Physics of Financial Networks," Papers 2103.05623, arXiv.org.
    5. Paul Glasserman & H. Peyton Young, 2015. "Contagion in Financial Markets," Working Papers 15-21, Office of Financial Research, US Department of the Treasury.
    6. Ahn, Dohyun & Kim, Kyoung-Kuk & Kwon, Eunji, 2023. "Multivariate stress scenario selection in interbank networks," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 154(C).
    7. Tobias Fissler & Jana Hlavinová & Birgit Rudloff, 2021. "Elicitability and identifiability of set-valued measures of systemic risk," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 25(1), pages 133-165, January.
    8. Abduraimova, Kumushoy & Nahai-Williamson, Paul, 2021. "Solvency distress contagion risk: network structure, bank heterogeneity and systemic resilience," Bank of England working papers 909, Bank of England.
    9. Wang, Wei & Xu, Huifu & Ma, Tiejun, 2023. "Optimal scenario-dependent multivariate shortfall risk measure and its application in risk capital allocation," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 306(1), pages 322-347.
    10. Elosegui, Pedro & Forte, Federico D. & Montes-Rojas, Gabriel, 2022. "Network structure and fragmentation of the Argentinean interbank markets," Latin American Journal of Central Banking (previously Monetaria), Elsevier, vol. 3(3).
    11. Francesca Biagini & Andrea Mazzon & Thilo Meyer-Brandis, 2018. "Financial asset bubbles in banking networks," Papers 1806.01728, arXiv.org.
    12. Battiston Stefano & Caldarelli Guido & D’Errico Marco & Gurciullo Stefano, 2016. "Leveraging the network: A stress-test framework based on DebtRank," Statistics & Risk Modeling, De Gruyter, vol. 33(3-4), pages 117-138, December.
    13. Anand, Kartik & van Lelyveld, Iman & Banai, Ádám & Friedrich, Soeren & Garratt, Rodney & Hałaj, Grzegorz & Fique, Jose & Hansen, Ib & Jaramillo, Serafín Martínez & Lee, Hwayun & Molina-Borboa, José Lu, 2018. "The missing links: A global study on uncovering financial network structures from partial data," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 107-119.
    14. Christoph Aymanns & J. Doyne Farmer & Alissa M. Keinniejenhuis & Thom Wetzer, 2017. "Models of Financial Stability and their Application in Stress Tests," Working Papers on Finance 1805, University of St. Gallen, School of Finance.
    15. Siklos, Pierre L. & Stefan, Martin, 2021. "Exchange rate shocks in multicurrency interbank markets," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 55(C).
    16. Silva, Walmir & Kimura, Herbert & Sobreiro, Vinicius Amorim, 2017. "An analysis of the literature on systemic financial risk: A survey," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 91-114.
    17. Covi, Giovanni & Gorpe, Mehmet Ziya & Kok, Christoffer, 2021. "CoMap: Mapping Contagion in the Euro Area Banking Sector," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 53(C).
    18. Hamed Amini & Zachary Feinstein, 2020. "Optimal Network Compression," Papers 2008.08733, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2022.
    19. José Carreño & Rodrigo Cifuentes, 2017. "Identifying Complex Core-Periphery Structures in the Interbank Market," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 813, Central Bank of Chile.
    20. Das Bikramjit & Fasen-Hartmann Vicky, 2019. "Conditional excess risk measures and multivariate regular variation," Statistics & Risk Modeling, De Gruyter, vol. 36(1-4), pages 1-23, December.

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:arx:papers:1911.07313. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: arXiv administrators (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://arxiv.org/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.