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Biased Roulette Wheel: A Quantitative Trading Strategy Approach

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  • Giancarlo Salirrosas Mart'inez

Abstract

The purpose of this research paper it is to present a new approach in the framework of a biased roulette wheel. It is used the approach of a quantitative trading strategy, commonly used in quantitative finance, in order to assess the profitability of the strategy in the short term. The tools of backtesting and walk-forward optimization were used to achieve such task. The data has been generated from a real European roulette wheel from an on-line casino based in Riga, Latvia. It has been recorded 10,980 spins and sent to the computer through a voice-to-text software for further numerical analysis in R. It has been observed that the probabilities of occurrence of the numbers at the roulette wheel follows an Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process. Moreover, it is shown that a flat betting system against Kelly Criterion was more profitable in the short term.

Suggested Citation

  • Giancarlo Salirrosas Mart'inez, 2016. "Biased Roulette Wheel: A Quantitative Trading Strategy Approach," Papers 1609.09601, arXiv.org.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:1609.09601
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Menkveld, Albert J., 2013. "High frequency trading and the new market makers," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 712-740.
    2. James Sundali & Rachel Croson, 2006. "Biases in casino betting: The hot hand and the gambler's fallacy," Judgment and Decision Making, Society for Judgment and Decision Making, vol. 1, pages 1-12, July.
    3. repec:cup:judgdm:v:1:y:2006:i::p:1-12 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Wong, Woon K., 2008. "Backtesting trading risk of commercial banks using expected shortfall," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(7), pages 1404-1415, July.
    5. Ole E. Barndorff‐Nielsen & Neil Shephard, 2001. "Non‐Gaussian Ornstein–Uhlenbeck‐based models and some of their uses in financial economics," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 63(2), pages 167-241.
    6. Martin Scholtus & Dick van Dijk, 2012. "High-Frequency Technical Trading: The Importance of Speed," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 12-018/4, Tinbergen Institute.
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