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Long Forward Probabilities, Recovery and the Term Structure of Bond Risk Premiums

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  • Likuan Qin
  • Vadim Linetsky
  • Yutian Nie

Abstract

We show that the martingale component in the long-term factorization of the stochastic discount factor due to Alvarez and Jermann (2005) and Hansen and Scheinkman (2009) is highly volatile, produces a downward-sloping term structure of bond Sharpe ratios, and implies that the long bond is far from growth optimality. In contrast, the long forward probabilities forecast an upward sloping term structure of bond Sharpe ratios that starts from zero for short-term bonds and implies that the long bond is growth optimal. Thus, transition independence and degeneracy of the martingale component are implausible assumptions in the bond market.

Suggested Citation

  • Likuan Qin & Vadim Linetsky & Yutian Nie, 2016. "Long Forward Probabilities, Recovery and the Term Structure of Bond Risk Premiums," Papers 1601.06477, arXiv.org.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:1601.06477
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Borovicka, J. & Hansen, L.P., 2016. "Term Structure of Uncertainty in the Macroeconomy," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1641-1696, Elsevier.
    2. Likuan Qin & Vadim Linetsky, 2016. "Long-Term Factorization of Affine Pricing Kernels," Papers 1610.00778, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2017.
    3. Dillschneider, Yannick & Maurer, Raimond, 2019. "Functional Ross recovery: Theoretical results and empirical tests," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 108(C).
    4. Likuan Qin & Vadim Linetsky, 2016. "The Long Bond, Long Forward Measure and Long-Term Factorization in Heath-Jarrow-Morton Models," Papers 1610.00818, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2017.

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