Estimate nothing
In the econometrics of financial time series, it is customary to take some parametric model for the data, and then estimate the parameters from historical data. This approach suffers from several problems. Firstly, how is estimation error to be quantified, and then taken into account when making statements about the future behaviour of the observed time series? Secondly, decisions may be taken today committing to future actions over some quite long horizon, as in the trading of derivatives; if the model is re-estimated at some intermediate time, our earlier decisions would need to be revised - but the derivative has already been traded at the earlier price. Thirdly, the exact form of the parametric model to be used is generally taken as given at the outset; other competitor models might possibly work better in some circumstances, but the methodology does not allow them to be factored into the inference. What we propose here is a very simple (Bayesian) alternative approach to inference and action in financial econometrics which deals decisively with all these issues. The key feature is that nothing is being estimated.
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| Length: | |
| Date of creation: | Jan 2014 |
| Date of revision: | |
| Handle: | RePEc:arx:papers:1401.5666 |
| Contact details of provider: | Web page: http://arxiv.org/
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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Stein, Elias M & Stein, Jeremy C, 1991. "Stock Price Distributions with Stochastic Volatility: An Analytic Approach," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 4(4), pages 727-52.
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- Allan Timmermann & Massimo Guidolin, 2001. "Option Prices under Bayesian Learning: Implied Volatility Dynamics and Predictive Densities," FMG Discussion Papers dp397, Financial Markets Group.
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- Beckers, Stan, 1980. " The Constant Elasticity of Variance Model and Its Implications for Option Pricing," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 35(3), pages 661-73, June.
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- Black, Fischer & Scholes, Myron S, 1973. "The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 637-54, May-June.
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