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A Semi-Markov Modulated Interest Rate Model


  • Guglielmo D'Amico
  • Raimondo Manca
  • Giovanni Salvi


In this paper we propose a semi-Markov modulated model of interest rates. We assume that the switching process is a semi-Markov process with finite state space E and the modulated process is a diffusive process. We derive recursive equations for the higher order moments of the discount factor and we describe a Monte Carlo al- gorithm to execute simulations. The results are specialized to classical models as those by Vasicek, Hull and White and CIR with a semi-Markov modulation.

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  • Guglielmo D'Amico & Raimondo Manca & Giovanni Salvi, 2012. "A Semi-Markov Modulated Interest Rate Model," Papers 1210.3164,
  • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:1210.3164

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Vasicek, Oldrich, 1977. "An equilibrium characterization of the term structure," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 177-188, November.
    2. Vasicek, Oldrich Alfonso, 1977. "Abstract: An Equilibrium Characterization of the Term Structure," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 12(04), pages 627-627, November.
    3. John C. Cox & Jonathan E. Ingersoll Jr. & Stephen A. Ross, 2005. "A Theory Of The Term Structure Of Interest Rates," World Scientific Book Chapters,in: Theory Of Valuation, chapter 5, pages 129-164 World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    4. Hunt, Julien & Devolder, Pierre, 2011. "Semi-Markov regime switching interest rate models and minimal entropy measure," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 390(21), pages 3767-3781.
    5. Mamon, Rogemar S., 2002. "A time-varying Markov chain model of term structure," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 60(3), pages 309-312, December.
    6. Darrell Duffie & Rui Kan, 1996. "A Yield-Factor Model Of Interest Rates," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 6(4), pages 379-406.
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