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Large portfolio losses: A dynamic contagion model

  • Paolo Dai Pra
  • Wolfgang J. Runggaldier
  • Elena Sartori
  • Marco Tolotti

Using particle system methodologies we study the propagation of financial distress in a network of firms facing credit risk. We investigate the phenomenon of a credit crisis and quantify the losses that a bank may suffer in a large credit portfolio. Applying a large deviation principle we compute the limiting distributions of the system and determine the time evolution of the credit quality indicators of the firms, deriving moreover the dynamics of a global financial health indicator. We finally describe a suitable version of the "Central Limit Theorem" useful to study large portfolio losses. Simulation results are provided as well as applications to portfolio loss distribution analysis.

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File URL: http://arxiv.org/pdf/0704.1348
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Paper provided by arXiv.org in its series Papers with number 0704.1348.

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Date of creation: Apr 2007
Date of revision: Mar 2009
Publication status: Published in Annals of Applied Probability 2009, Vol. 19, No. 1, 347-394
Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:0704.1348
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://arxiv.org/

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  1. Horst, Ulrich, 2007. "Stochastic cascades, credit contagion, and large portfolio losses," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 63(1), pages 25-54, May.
  2. Frey, Rudiger & McNeil, Alexander J., 2002. "VaR and expected shortfall in portfolios of dependent credit risks: Conceptual and practical insights," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(7), pages 1317-1334, July.
  3. Gordy, Michael B., 2000. "A comparative anatomy of credit risk models," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(1-2), pages 119-149, January.
  4. Robert A. Jarrow, 2001. "Counterparty Risk and the Pricing of Defaultable Securities," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(5), pages 1765-1799, October.
  5. Umut Cetin & R. Jarrow & P. Protter & Y. Yildirim, 2004. "Modeling credit risk with partial information," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 2840, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  6. Crouhy, Michel & Galai, Dan & Mark, Robert, 2000. "A comparative analysis of current credit risk models," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(1-2), pages 59-117, January.
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