Large portfolio losses: A dynamic contagion model
Using particle system methodologies we study the propagation of financial distress in a network of firms facing credit risk. We investigate the phenomenon of a credit crisis and quantify the losses that a bank may suffer in a large credit portfolio. Applying a large deviation principle we compute the limiting distributions of the system and determine the time evolution of the credit quality indicators of the firms, deriving moreover the dynamics of a global financial health indicator. We finally describe a suitable version of the "Central Limit Theorem" useful to study large portfolio losses. Simulation results are provided as well as applications to portfolio loss distribution analysis.
|Date of creation:||Apr 2007|
|Date of revision:||Mar 2009|
|Publication status:||Published in Annals of Applied Probability 2009, Vol. 19, No. 1, 347-394|
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://arxiv.org/|
References listed on IDEAS
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- Umut Çetin & Robert Jarrow & Philip Protter & Yildiray Yildirim, 2008.
"Modeling Credit Risk With Partial Information,"
World Scientific Book Chapters,in: Financial Derivatives Pricing Selected Works of Robert Jarrow, chapter 23, pages 579-590
World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
- Cetin, Umut & Jarrow, R. & Protter, P. & Yildirim, Y., 2004. "Modeling credit risk with partial information," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 2840, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
- Umut Cetin & Robert Jarrow & Philip Protter & Yildiray Yildirim, 2004. "Modeling Credit Risk with Partial Information," Papers math/0407060, arXiv.org.
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- Robert A. Jarrow & Fan Yu, 2008. "Counterparty Risk and the Pricing of Defaultable Securities," World Scientific Book Chapters,in: Financial Derivatives Pricing Selected Works of Robert Jarrow, chapter 20, pages 481-515 World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
- Robert A. Jarrow, 2001. "Counterparty Risk and the Pricing of Defaultable Securities," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(5), pages 1765-1799, October.
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- Crouhy, Michel & Galai, Dan & Mark, Robert, 2000. "A comparative analysis of current credit risk models," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(1-2), pages 59-117, January. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)