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Ammunition Leakage From The Military To Civilian Markets: Market Price Evidence From Haiti, 2004 - 2012

Author

Listed:
  • Topher L. McDougal
  • Athena Kolbe
  • Robert Muggah
  • Nicholas Marsh

Abstract

The rapid increase in the accessibility of firearms and ammunition represents a key factor in the destabilization of many countries. It is also commonly associated with an escalation in the intensity and organization of collective and interpersonal violence. In some cases, arms are illegally transferred from one state to another, while in others weapons are diverted from existing stores. In t his article the authors consider the leakage from military and civilian markets as an important source of ammunition available to civilians in Haiti. We employ a unique section - quarterly panel of ammunition prices over the period July 2004 - July 2012. This data is combined with publicly available monthly data on authorized ammunition shipments to the country registered by the United Nations (UN) and Haitian National Police (HNP). We also consider annual data on homi cide rates and UN resolutions related to Ha iti an military personnel and civilian police. We use a standard time - series OLS model to show that the exogenous shocks of UN - and HNP - ordered ammunition exert measurable downward pressure on civilian ammunition markets, which we calculate in terms of adju sted predictions and partial elasticities of demand. These effects constitute solid econometric evidence that the firewall that should in theory separate military and civilian markets in Haiti has partially broken down. We conclude with a suggestion for us ing this model to help estimate the specific size of the leakage.

Suggested Citation

  • Topher L. McDougal & Athena Kolbe & Robert Muggah & Nicholas Marsh, 2014. "Ammunition Leakage From The Military To Civilian Markets: Market Price Evidence From Haiti, 2004 - 2012," SADO - Working Papers 192, Small Arms Data Observatory.
  • Handle: RePEc:arm:wpaper:192
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    File URL: https://smallarmsdata.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/07/SADO-WPS_Haiti-ammunition_McDougal-Kolbe-Muggah-Marsh.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Phillip Killicoat, 2006. "Weaponomics The Economics of Small Arms," Economics Series Working Papers WPS/2006-13, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    2. Phillip Killicoat, 2006. "Weaponomics: The Economics of Small Arms," CSAE Working Paper Series 2006-13, Centre for the Study of African Economies, University of Oxford.
    3. Hirshleifer, Jack, 1987. "Economic Behaviour in Adversity," University of Chicago Press Economics Books, University of Chicago Press, number 9780226342825, Winter.
    4. Stefan Markowski & Stephanie Koorey & Peter Hall & Jurgen Brauer, 2009. "Multi-Channel Supply Chain For Illicit Small Arms," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(3), pages 171-191.
    5. Topher L. McDougal & David A. Shirk & Robert Muggah & John H. Patterson, 2015. "The Way of the Gun: Estimating Firearms Trafficking across the US–Mexico Border," Journal of Economic Geography, Oxford University Press, vol. 15(2), pages 297-327.
    6. Stefan Markowski & Stephanie Koorey & Peter Hall & Jurgen Brauer, 2008. "Channels of small-arms proliferation: Policy implications for Asia-Pacific," Economics of Peace and Security Journal, EPS Publishing, vol. 3(1), pages 79-85, January.
    7. Eric Zitzewitz, 2012. "Forensic Economics," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 50(3), pages 731-769, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ammunition; military - civilian leakage; time - series OLS; Haiti; Caribbean;

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • D40 - Microeconomics - - Market Structure, Pricing, and Design - - - General
    • H56 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - National Security and War
    • H57 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Procurement

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