Dívida Pública Brasileira, Default E A "Nova Equivalência Ricardiana": Um Exercício Cliométrico Do Brasil - Império À Época Atual
This paper tests the sustainability of the Brazilian public debt throughout its history as an independent nation (1823-2004) by the use of cointegration tests. Since the sample period covers a historical period highlighted by a great deal of political, economic and institutional shifts, recursive tests have also been carried out in order to evaluate the constancy of the cointegrating rank. Initially, the traditional intertemporal budget model (Ricardian Equivalence model) has been suposed, and thus testing the cointegration of government expenditures and revenues. However, the presence of consecutive default or debt restructuring situations concerning the Brazilian public debt, throughout its republican period, suggests an alternative model, in which the sustainability of public debt is achieved by "debt repudiation" ("New Ricardian Equivalence" model). The cointegration tests based on such an alternative model have included dummies for each default or renegotiation period of the public debt ("default dummies"). As a conclusion, one might postulate that the fiscal policy implemented in Brazil during almost all its history as an independent nation, oscillated between authentic sustainability periods (Imperial period) and moments when fiscal sustainability was achieved through debt default or renegotiation (republican period from 1889 to 1943 and from 1983 to 1993) or seigniorage revenues (republican period from 1944 to 1982).
|Date of creation:||2005|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Secretaria da ANPEC Rua Prof Marcos Valdemar de Freitas Reis s/n Campus do Gragoatá Bloco F Niterói, RJ 24210-201 Brazil|
Phone: 55 21 3674 7952
Web page: http://www.anpec.org.br
More information through EDIRC
|Order Information:|| Postal: Secretaria da ANPEC Rua Prof Marcos Valdemar de Freitas Reis s/n Campus do Gragoatá Bloco F Niterói, RJ 24210-201 Brazil|
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff & Miguel A. Savastano, 2003.
NBER Working Papers
9908, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2004.
"Serial Default and the "Paradox" of Rich-to-Poor Capital Flows,"
American Economic Review,
American Economic Association, vol. 94(2), pages 53-58, May.
- Reinhart, Carmen M. & Rogoff, Kenneth S., 2004. "Serial Default and the â€œParadoxâ€ of Rich-to-Poor Capital Flows," Scholarly Articles 11129182, Harvard University Department of Economics.
- Reinhart, Carmen & Rogoff, Kenneth, 2004. "Serial default and the “paradox” of rich to poor capital flows," MPRA Paper 13997, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2004. "Serial Default and the "Paradox" of Rich to Poor Capital Flows," NBER Working Papers 10296, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Hansen, Bruce E, 1992.
"Tests for Parameter Instability in Regressions with I(1) Processes,"
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics,
American Statistical Association, vol. 10(3), pages 321-35, July.
- Hansen, Bruce E, 2002. "Tests for Parameter Instability in Regressions with I(1) Processes," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 45-59, January.
- Henrik Hansen & Søren Johansen, 1999. "Some tests for parameter constancy in cointegrated VAR-models," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 2(2), pages 306-333.
- repec:rus:hseeco:123922 is not listed on IDEAS
- Rocha, Fabiana, 1997. "Long-Run Limits on the Brazilian Government Debt," Revista Brasileira de Economia, FGV/EPGE Escola Brasileira de Economia e Finanças, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil), vol. 51(4), October.
- Henning Bohn, 1998. "The Behavior of U. S. Public Debt and Deficits," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 113(3), pages 949-963.
- Quintos, Carmela E, 1995. "Sustainability of the Deficit Process with Structural Shifts," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 13(4), pages 409-17, October.
- Luporini, Viviane, 2000. "Sustainability of the Brazilian Fiscal Policy and Central bank Independence," Revista Brasileira de Economia, FGV/EPGE Escola Brasileira de Economia e Finanças, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil), vol. 54(2), April.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:anp:en2005:050. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Rodrigo Zadra Armond)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.