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Dívida Pública Brasileira, Default E A "Nova Equivalência Ricardiana": Um Exercício Cliométrico Do Brasil - Império À Época Atual


  • Ulisses Ruiz de Gamboa


This paper tests the sustainability of the Brazilian public debt throughout its history as an independent nation (1823-2004) by the use of cointegration tests. Since the sample period covers a historical period highlighted by a great deal of political, economic and institutional shifts, recursive tests have also been carried out in order to evaluate the constancy of the cointegrating rank. Initially, the traditional intertemporal budget model (Ricardian Equivalence model) has been suposed, and thus testing the cointegration of government expenditures and revenues. However, the presence of consecutive default or debt restructuring situations concerning the Brazilian public debt, throughout its republican period, suggests an alternative model, in which the sustainability of public debt is achieved by "debt repudiation" ("New Ricardian Equivalence" model). The cointegration tests based on such an alternative model have included dummies for each default or renegotiation period of the public debt ("default dummies"). As a conclusion, one might postulate that the fiscal policy implemented in Brazil during almost all its history as an independent nation, oscillated between authentic sustainability periods (Imperial period) and moments when fiscal sustainability was achieved through debt default or renegotiation (republican period from 1889 to 1943 and from 1983 to 1993) or seigniorage revenues (republican period from 1944 to 1982).

Suggested Citation

  • Ulisses Ruiz de Gamboa, 2005. "Dívida Pública Brasileira, Default E A "Nova Equivalência Ricardiana": Um Exercício Cliométrico Do Brasil - Império À Época Atual," Anais do XXXIII Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 33th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 050, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pósgraduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
  • Handle: RePEc:anp:en2005:050

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Hansen, Bruce E, 2002. "Tests for Parameter Instability in Regressions with I(1) Processes," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 45-59, January.
    2. Luporini, Viviane, 2000. "Sustainability of the Brazilian Fiscal Policy and Central bank Independence," Revista Brasileira de Economia - RBE, FGV/EPGE - Escola Brasileira de Economia e Finanças, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil), vol. 54(2), April.
    3. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2004. "Serial Default and the "Paradox" of Rich-to-Poor Capital Flows," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(2), pages 53-58, May.
    4. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff & Miguel A. Savastano, 2003. "Debt Intolerance," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 34(1), pages 1-74.
    5. Rocha, Fabiana, 1997. "Long-Run Limits on the Brazilian Government Debt," Revista Brasileira de Economia - RBE, FGV/EPGE - Escola Brasileira de Economia e Finanças, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil), vol. 51(4), October.
    6. Henning Bohn, 1998. "The Behavior of U. S. Public Debt and Deficits," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 113(3), pages 949-963.
    7. Quintos, Carmela E, 1995. "Sustainability of the Deficit Process with Structural Shifts," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 13(4), pages 409-417, October.
    8. repec:rus:hseeco:123922 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Henrik Hansen & Søren Johansen, 1999. "Some tests for parameter constancy in cointegrated VAR-models," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 2(2), pages 306-333.
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    Blog mentions

    As found by, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
    1. Ulisses M. Ruiz de Gamboa, um cliometrista
      by Leonardo Monasterio in Blog do Leonardo Monasterio on 2009-05-02 03:55:00
    2. Ulisses M. Ruiz de Gamboa, a cliometrician
      by Leonardo Monasterio in Leonardo Monasterio's Blog on 2009-05-02 04:13:00

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy
    • H60 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - General
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models

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