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Volatility: Expectations and Realizations

  • Peters, R.
  • van der Weide, R.

    ()

    (World Bank)

Embedded in option prices are market expectations regarding future volatility. While the assumption of rational expectations has been a popular paradigm, it is difficult to ignore the subjective nature of expectations. The objective of this paper is to make market expectations visible as they evolve over time, and to price options in line with prevailing expectations, be they rational or non-rational. We put forward an analytically convenient option pricing framework that accommodates both stochastic volatility and asymmetric volatility. Daily estimates of the implied pdf of volatility are obtained by estimating the option pricing model one day at a time. We do not impose too much structure on how expectations are updated over time, but allow market expectations to take their course.

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File URL: http://www1.fee.uva.nl/cendef/publications/papers/Smile_Dec2011.pdf
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Paper provided by Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance in its series CeNDEF Working Papers with number 12-04.

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Date of creation: 2012
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Handle: RePEc:ams:ndfwpp:12-04
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Dept. of Economics and Econometrics, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Roetersstraat 11, NL - 1018 WB Amsterdam, The Netherlands

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Web page: http://www.fee.uva.nl/cendef/
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  1. Stylianos Perrakis & Jens Carsten Jackwerth & George Constantinides, 2005. "Mispricing of S&P 500 Index Options," Working Papers wp05-07, Warwick Business School, Finance Group.
  2. Andrea Buraschi & Alexei Jiltsov, 2006. "Model Uncertainty and Option Markets with Heterogeneous Beliefs," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 61(6), pages 2841-2897, December.
  3. Brock, W.A. & Hommes, C.H. & Wagener, F.O.O., 2009. "More hedging instruments may destabilize markets," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 33(11), pages 1912-1928, November.
  4. Ole E. Barndorff-Nielsen & Neil Shephard, 2000. "Econometric analysis of realised volatility and its use in estimating stochastic volatility models," Economics Papers 2001-W4, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford, revised 05 Jul 2001.
  5. Charles Quanwei Cao & Gurdip S. Bakshi & Zhiwu Chen, 1997. "Empirical Performance of Alternative Option Pricing Models," Yale School of Management Working Papers ysm54, Yale School of Management.
  6. Black, Fischer & Scholes, Myron S, 1973. "The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 637-54, May-June.
  7. Garcia, R. & Luger, R. & Renault, E., 2001. "Empirical Assessment of an Intertemporal option Pricing Model with Latent variables," Cahiers de recherche 2001-10, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
  8. Thomas Busch & Bent Jesper Christensen & Morten Ørregaard Nielsen, 2007. "The Role of Implied Volatility in Forecasting Future Realized Volatility and Jumps in Foreign Exchange, Stock, and Bond Markets," CREATES Research Papers 2007-09, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
  9. Ball, Clifford A. & Roma, Antonio, 1994. "Stochastic Volatility Option Pricing," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 29(04), pages 589-607, December.
  10. Bernard Dumas & Jeff Fleming & Robert E. Whaley, 1998. "Implied Volatility Functions: Empirical Tests," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 53(6), pages 2059-2106, December.
  11. Hull, John C & White, Alan D, 1987. " The Pricing of Options on Assets with Stochastic Volatilities," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 42(2), pages 281-300, June.
  12. Bing Han, 2008. "Investor Sentiment and Option Prices," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 21(1), pages 387-414, January.
  13. Christoffersen, Peter & Jacobs, Kris, 2004. "The importance of the loss function in option valuation," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(2), pages 291-318, May.
  14. Eric Renault & Nizar Touzi, 1996. "Option Hedging And Implied Volatilities In A Stochastic Volatility Model," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 6(3), pages 279-302.
  15. Jackwerth, Jens Carsten & Rubinstein, Mark, 1996. " Recovering Probability Distributions from Option Prices," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(5), pages 1611-32, December.
  16. Bates, David S., 2000. "Post-'87 crash fears in the S&P 500 futures option market," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 94(1-2), pages 181-238.
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