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Echoes of Terrorism: Examining the Effects of Siren Alerts Timing on Voter Preferences in Israel

Author

Listed:
  • Luiz Bines

    (PUC-Rio)

  • Juliano Assunção

    (PUC-Rio)

  • Ricardo Dahis

    (Monash University)

Abstract

This study investigates the effects of "Red Alerts", siren warnings of rocket threats, on voting behavior in Israel, focusing on the Likud party during the 2013 and 2015 elections. Using a novel dataset on Red Alert timing and location, we apply a difference-in-differences approach to compare voting patterns in areas newly exposed to Gaza's rocket range in 2014. Our analysis shows that Red Alerts on the days immediately before the election boosted Likud’s vote share by 2.5 p.p., or 15% of the average, while earlier alerts had no significant effect, highlighting the impact of threat salience on electoral outcomes. This research advances our understanding of how security threats influence political behavior.

Suggested Citation

  • Luiz Bines & Juliano Assunção & Ricardo Dahis, 2024. "Echoes of Terrorism: Examining the Effects of Siren Alerts Timing on Voter Preferences in Israel," SoDa Laboratories Working Paper Series 2024-04, Monash University, SoDa Laboratories.
    • Handle: RePEc:ajr:sodwps:2024-04
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Getmansky, Anna & Zeitzoff, Thomas, 2014. "Terrorism and Voting: The Effect of Rocket Threat on Voting in Israeli Elections," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 108(3), pages 588-604, August.
    2. Elster, Yael, 2019. "Rockets and votes," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 166(C), pages 767-784.
    3. Amarasinghe, Ashani, 2023. "Public sentiment in times of terror," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 162(C).
    4. J. Vernon Henderson & Adam Storeygard & David N. Weil, 2012. "Measuring Economic Growth from Outer Space," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(2), pages 994-1028, April.
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    JEL classification:

    • F5 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy

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