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Was wäre, wenn...? Die wirtschaftlichen Auswirkungen eines Importstopps russischer Energie auf Deutschland

Author

Listed:
  • Rüdiger Bachmann

    (University of Notre Dame)

  • David Baqaee

    (University of California, Los Angeles)

  • Christian Bayer

    (University of Bonn)

  • Moritz Kuhn

    (University of Bonn)

  • Andreas Löschel

    (Ruhr University Bochum)

  • Benjamin Moll

    (London School of Economics)

  • Andreas Peichl

    (Ifo Institute for Economic Research, University of Munich)

  • Karen Pittel

    (Ifo Institute for Economic Research, University of Munich)

  • Moritz Schularick

    (Sciences Po Paris, University of Bonn)

Abstract

In diesem Artikel werden die wirtschaftlichen Auswirkungen eines möglichen Stopps russischer Energieimporte auf die deutsche Wirtschaft diskutiert. Wir zeigen, dass die Auswirkungen wahrscheinlich substanziell, aber handhabbar sein werden. Kurzfristig würde ein Stopp der russischen Energieimporte zu einem BIP-Rückgang zwischen 0,5 % und 3 % führen (Zum Vergleich: Der BIP-Rückgang im Jahr 2020 auf Grund der Pandemie betrug 4,5 %).

Suggested Citation

  • Rüdiger Bachmann & David Baqaee & Christian Bayer & Moritz Kuhn & Andreas Löschel & Benjamin Moll & Andreas Peichl & Karen Pittel & Moritz Schularick, 2022. "Was wäre, wenn...? Die wirtschaftlichen Auswirkungen eines Importstopps russischer Energie auf Deutschland," ECONtribute Policy Brief Series 029, University of Bonn and University of Cologne, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:ajk:ajkpbs:029
    as

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    File URL: https://www.econtribute.de/RePEc/ajk/ajkpbs/ECONtribute_PB_029_2022.pdf
    File Function: First version, 2022
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jevgenijs Steinbuks, 2012. "Interfuel Substitution and Energy Use in the U.K. Manufacturing Sector," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 1).
    2. Maximilian Auffhammer & Edward Rubin, 2018. "Natural Gas Price Elasticities and Optimal Cost Recovery Under Consumer Heterogeneity: Evidence from 300 million natural gas bills," NBER Working Papers 24295, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    Cited by:

    1. Frondel, Manuel & Schmidt, Christoph M., 2022. "Stopp des Bezugs von russischem Gas birgt erhebliche Risiken," RWI Positionen 81, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung.
    2. Kamin Katrin & Langhammer Rolf J., 2025. "Die geoökonomischen Herausforderungen der deutschen Wirtschaft meistern," Wirtschaftsdienst, Sciendo, vol. 105(1), pages 48-53.
    3. Berger, Eva M. & Bialek, Sylwia & Garnadt, Niklas & Grimm, Veronika & Other, Lars & Salzmann, Leonard & Schnitzer, Monika & Truger, Achim & Wieland, Volker, 2022. "A potential sudden stop of energy imports from Russia: Effects on energy security and economic output in Germany and the EU," Working Papers 01/2022, German Council of Economic Experts / Sachverständigenrat zur Begutachtung der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Entwicklung.
    4. Koenen, Michelle & Kunath, Gero & Obst, Thomas, 2022. "Europa an der Schwelle zur Rezession? Wirtschaftliche Auswirkungen der Corona-Pandemie und des Ukraine-Kriegs," IW-Reports 40/2022, Institut der deutschen Wirtschaft (IW) / German Economic Institute.

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