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The Ins and Outs of UK Unemployment

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  • Smith, Jennifer C.

Abstract

This paper shows that in the UK, increases in unemployment in a recession are driven by rises in the separation rate. A new decomposition of unemployment dynamics is devised that does not require unemployment to be in steady state at all times. This is important because low UK transition rates ñ one quarter the size of the US ñimply substantial deviation of unemployment from steady state near cyclical turning points. In periods of moderation, the job Önding rate is shown to have most ináuence on UK unemployment dynamics. Evidence comes from the Örst study of monthly data derived from individualsí labour market spells recorded in the British Household Panel Survey from 1988 to 2008.

Suggested Citation

  • Smith, Jennifer C., 2010. "The Ins and Outs of UK Unemployment," Economic Research Papers 270994, University of Warwick - Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:uwarer:270994
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.270994
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Yashiv, Eran, 2006. "U.S. Labor Market Dynamics Revisited," IZA Discussion Papers 2455, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    2. Olivier Blanchard & Jordi Galí, 2010. "Labor Markets and Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Model with Unemployment," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 2(2), pages 1-30, April.
    3. Gary Solon & Ryan Michaels & Michael W. L. Elsby, 2009. "The Ins and Outs of Cyclical Unemployment," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 1(1), pages 84-110, January.
    4. Shigeru Fujita & Garey Ramey, 2009. "The Cyclicality Of Separation And Job Finding Rates," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 50(2), pages 415-430, May.
    5. Robert Shimer, 2005. "The Cyclical Behavior of Equilibrium Unemployment and Vacancies," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(1), pages 25-49, March.
    6. Robert Shimer, 2012. "Reassessing the Ins and Outs of Unemployment," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 15(2), pages 127-148, April.
    7. Abowd, John M & Zellner, Arnold, 1985. "Estimating Gross Labor-Force Flows," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 3(3), pages 254-283, June.
    8. Poterba, James M & Summers, Lawrence H, 1986. "Reporting Errors and Labor Market Dynamics," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 54(6), pages 1319-1338, November.
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    Cited by:

    1. Petr Maleček, 2014. "Toky dlouhodobé nezaměstnanosti [Long-Term Unemployment Flows]," Politická ekonomie, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2014(4), pages 560-576.
    2. Lin, Ching-Yang & Miyamoto, Hiroaki, 2012. "Gross worker flows and unemployment dynamics in Japan," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 44-61.

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