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Structure of the USDA Livestock and Poultry Baseline Model

Author

Listed:
  • Maples, William E.
  • Brorsen, B. Wade
  • Hahn, William
  • MacLachlan, Matthew
  • Chalise, Lekhnath

Abstract

The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) produces annual 10-year projections for the food and agriculture sector that cover major agricultural commodities, agricultural trade, and aggregated indicators of the U.S. farm sector. These projections are published in an annual report, with the most recent being USDA Agricultural Projections to 2031. Also, the Economic Report of the President includes these projections and has a direct impact on policy decisions. These 10-year projections are called the “baseline.” The USDA’s Economic Research Service (ERS) maintains a stand-alone livestock baseline model, which characterizes the relationships among livestock production and the market conditions for related animal products for cattle/beef, hogs/pork, chicken, and turkey. This bulletin outlines the equations used to create the livestock baseline. These equations were used in the creation of the 2031 baseline report.

Suggested Citation

  • Maples, William E. & Brorsen, B. Wade & Hahn, William & MacLachlan, Matthew & Chalise, Lekhnath, 2022. "Structure of the USDA Livestock and Poultry Baseline Model," USDA Miscellaneous 323861, United States Department of Agriculture.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:usdami:323861
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.323861
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Stillman, Richard P., 1985. "A Quarterly Model of the Livestock Industry," Technical Bulletins 157008, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    2. Maples, Joshua G. & Lusk, Jayson L. & Peel, Derrell S., 2018. "Unintended consequences of the quest for increased efficiency in beef cattle: When bigger isn’t better," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 65-73.
    3. Bir, Courtney & DeVuyst, Eric A. & Rolf, Megan & Lalman, David, 2018. "Optimal Beef Cow Weights in the U.S. Southern Plains," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 43(1), January.
    4. Hjort, Kim & Boussios, David & Seeley, Ralph & Hansen, James, 2018. "The ERS Country-Commodity Linked System: Documenting Its International Country and Regional Agricultural Baseline Models," Technical Bulletins 282511, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
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