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Forecasting Price Relationships among U.S Tree Nuts Prices

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  • Ibrahim, Mohammed
  • Florkowski, Wojciech J.

Abstract

This paper investigates a vector auto regression model, using the Johansen cointegration technique, and the autoregressive integrated moving average time series models to determine the better model for forecasting US tree nut prices over the period 1992-2006. The Johansen contegration test shows lack of long run relationship among pecan, walnut, and almond prices. As such, only autoregressive integrated moving average-type models were used in forecasting U.S. nut prices.

Suggested Citation

  • Ibrahim, Mohammed & Florkowski, Wojciech J., 2009. "Forecasting Price Relationships among U.S Tree Nuts Prices," 2009 Annual Meeting, January 31-February 3, 2009, Atlanta, Georgia 47212, Southern Agricultural Economics Association.
  • Handle: RePEc:ags:saeana:47212
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    File URL: http://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/47212/files/Mohammed%20Ibrahim%20SAEA-Atl09.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Gonzalo, Jesus, 1994. "Five alternative methods of estimating long-run equilibrium relationships," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 60(1-2), pages 203-233.
    2. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
    3. Lanza, Alessandro & Manera, Matteo & Giovannini, Massimo, 2005. "Modeling and forecasting cointegrated relationships among heavy oil and product prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(6), pages 831-848, November.
    4. Florkowski, Wojciech J. & Lai, Yue, 1997. "Cointegration Between Prices of Pecans and Other Edible Nuts: Forecasting and Implications," 1997 Annual Meeting, July 13-16, 1997, Reno\ Sparks, Nevada 35870, Western Agricultural Economics Association.
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    Cited by:

    1. Cheng, Guo & Dharmasena, Senarath & Capps, Oral Jr, 2017. "The Taste for Variety: Demand Analysis for Nut Products in the United States," 2017 Annual Meeting, February 4-7, 2017, Mobile, Alabama 252719, Southern Agricultural Economics Association.

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    Keywords

    Demand and Price Analysis; Production Economics;

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