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Using Bayesian Estimation and Decision Theory to Determine the Optimal Level of Nitrogen in Cotton


  • Brorsen, B. Wade


Improved software now makes Bayesian estimation a strong alternative to nonlinear maximum likelihood. Bayesian methods were used to estimate a linear response stochastic plateau for cotton and were shown to provide estimates similar to maximum likelihood. Optimal levels of nitrogen were lower than recommended levels.

Suggested Citation

  • Brorsen, B. Wade, 2013. "Using Bayesian Estimation and Decision Theory to Determine the Optimal Level of Nitrogen in Cotton," 2013 Annual Meeting, February 2-5, 2013, Orlando, Florida 142951, Southern Agricultural Economics Association.
  • Handle: RePEc:ags:saea13:142951

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Xiaodong Du & David A. Hennessy & Cindy L. Yu, 2012. "Testing Day's Conjecture that More Nitrogen Decreases Crop Yield Skewness," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 94(1), pages 225-237.
    2. Garth Holloway & Quirino Paris, 2002. "Production Efficiency in the von Liebig Model," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 84(5), pages 1271-1278.
    3. Tembo, Gelson & Brorsen, B. Wade & Epplin, Francis M., 2003. "Linear Response Stochastic Plateau Functions," 2003 Annual Meeting, February 1-5, 2003, Mobile, Alabama 35217, Southern Agricultural Economics Association.
    4. Kaitibie, Simeon & Epplin, Francis M. & Brorsen, B. Wade & Horn, Gerald W. & Krenzer, Eugene G. & Paisley, Steven I., 2003. "Optimal Stocking Density for Dual-Purpose Winter Wheat Production," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 35(01), pages 29-38, April.
    5. Gelson Tembo & B. Wade Brorsen & Francis M. Epplin & Emílio Tostão, 2008. "Crop Input Response Functions with Stochastic Plateaus," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 90(2), pages 424-434.
    6. B. Brorsen & Francisca Richter, 2012. "Experimental designs for estimating plateau-type production functions and economically optimal input levels," Journal of Productivity Analysis, Springer, vol. 38(1), pages 45-52, August.
    7. Roberts, David C. & Brorsen, B. Wade & Solie, John B. & Raun, William R., 2011. "The effect of parameter uncertainty on whole-field nitrogen recommendations from nitrogen-rich strips and ramped strips in winter wheat," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 104(4), pages 307-314, April.
    8. Garth Holloway, 2003. "An Old Problem Revisited-and Solved: Upton and Dalton's Linear Production Response: A Note," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 54(3), pages 487-497.
    9. Berna Karali & Gabriel J. Power & Ariun Ishdorj, 2011. "Bayesian State-Space Estimation of Stochastic Volatility for Storable Commodities," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 93(2), pages 434-440.
    10. Paul V. Preckel & Eric DeVuyst, 1992. "Efficient Handling of Probability Information for Decision Analysis under Risk," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 74(3), pages 655-662.
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    Cited by:

    1. Mkondiwa, Maxwell Gibson, 2015. "Whither Broad or Spatially Specific Fertilizer Recommendations?," Master's Theses 237344, University of Minnesota, Department of Applied Economics.
    2. Asci, Serhat & Borisova, Tatiana & VanSickle, John J., 2015. "Role of economics in developing fertilizer best management practices," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 152(C), pages 251-261.
    3. Chapoto, Antony & Sabasi, Darlington & Asante-Addo, Collins, "undated". "Fertilizer Intensification and Soil Fertility Impact on Maize Yield Response in Northern Ghana," 2015 AAEA & WAEA Joint Annual Meeting, July 26-28, San Francisco, California 205694, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association;Western Agricultural Economics Association.
    4. Asci, Serhat & Borisova, Tatiana & VanSickle, John J., 2014. "Risks in Potato Production: Fertilizer, Water, and Producers’ Decision Making," 2014 Annual Meeting, February 1-4, 2014, Dallas, Texas 162536, Southern Agricultural Economics Association.
    5. Ouedraogo, Frederic B. & Brorsen, B. Wade, 2014. "Bayesian Estimation of Optimal Nitrogen Rates with a Non-Normally Distributed Stochastic Plateau Function," 2014 Annual Meeting, February 1-4, 2014, Dallas, Texas 162447, Southern Agricultural Economics Association.
    6. Falconer, Lawrence L. & Walker, Timothy W. & Richardson, James W., 2014. "Economic Evaluation of Fertilizer Reduction Incentive Programs for Rice Producers," Journal of the ASFMRA, American Society of Farm Managers and Rural Appraisers.

    More about this item


    Bayesian; cotton; lint yield; nitrogen; Oklahoma; stochastic plateau; Crop Production/Industries; Farm Management; Production Economics; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods; C11; Q12;

    JEL classification:

    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • Q12 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Micro Analysis of Farm Firms, Farm Households, and Farm Input Markets

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