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The future of Australia’s thermal coal industry in a low carbon environment

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  • Hodges, Cedric

Abstract

This paper provides projections of the transition ahead for Australia’s thermal coal industry under the global effort to keep global warming below 2°C. The study uses a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model with a bottom-up representation of the regional economies where thermal coal mining is concentrated, linked directly with the surrounding national and global economies. The database of the model is constructed from the latest global and regional input-output data and has a comprehensive emissions accounting module covering CO2 and non-CO2 emissions from all sources. A range of sensitivity analysis is conducted to account for the inherent uncertainty in assumed behaviour. The results show the industry is facing a persistent and severe contraction with knock-on effects for regional economies. This underscores the need for proactive and forthright planning by policymakers to help ease the transition of local workers and populations.

Suggested Citation

  • Hodges, Cedric, 2020. "The future of Australia’s thermal coal industry in a low carbon environment," Conference papers 333232, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:pugtwp:333232
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Philip D. Adams & Brian R. Parmenter & George Verikios, 2014. "An Emissions Trading Scheme for Australia: National and Regional Impacts," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 90(290), pages 316-344, September.
    2. Ianchovichina, Elena & McDougall, Robert, 2000. "Theoretical Structure Of Dynamic Gtap," Technical Papers 28723, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    3. Glomsrod, Solveig & Taoyuan, Wei, 2005. "Coal cleaning: a viable strategy for reduced carbon emissions and improved environment in China?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 525-542, March.
    4. Corden, W Max & Neary, J Peter, 1982. "Booming Sector and De-Industrialisation in a Small Open Economy," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 92(368), pages 825-848, December.
    5. Philip Adams & Janine Dixon & Mark Horridge, 2015. "The Victoria University Regional Model (VURM): Technical Documentation, Version 1.0," Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre Working Papers g-254, Victoria University, Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre.
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