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Climate Variability and Agricultural Policy in Morocco

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  • Karaky, Rabih H.
  • Arndt, Channing

Abstract

Two distinctive features seem to be driving the agricultural sector in Morocco. The first is what appears to be an increased frequency of drought, with six of the last ten years characterized as drought years. The second is the continued protective policy that the government maintains on different agricultural commodities, primarily cereals. We employ an enhanced general equilibrium model that examines the long run impacts of trade liberalization policy under alternative climate outcomes. Our results indicate that returns to factors of production are bid up under favorable climate and decline dramatically in the bad state of nature. This behavior is transmitted to households’ welfare. With complete wheat trade liberalization, we find that landowners are the primary losers irrespective of the state of nature realized. The urban sector gains. There is also evidence that livestock capital help mitigate the negative impacts of liberalization in the event of drought, especially for small farmers.

Suggested Citation

  • Karaky, Rabih H. & Arndt, Channing, 2002. "Climate Variability and Agricultural Policy in Morocco," Conference papers 331033, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:pugtwp:331033
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Arndt, Channing, 1996. "An Introduction To Systematic Sensitivity Analysis Via Gaussian Quadrature," Technical Papers 28709, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    2. Bach, Christian Friis & Ken Pearson, 1996. "Implementing Quotas in GTAP Using GEMPACK or How to Linearize an Inequality," GTAP Technical Papers 307, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University.
    3. Hertel, Thomas, 1997. "Global Trade Analysis: Modeling and applications," GTAP Books, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University, number 7685, December.
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