IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ags/pugtwp/330979.html

Eastern Enlargement of the EU: Factor Mobility and Transfers - Which Matters Most?

Author

Listed:
  • Vaittinen, Risto

Abstract

This paper analyses the economic effects of the eastern enlargement of the EU both on the existing Member States and the candidate countries using simulation results of a dynamic computable general equilibrium model. In addition to conventional trade policy impacts such as custom union formation and common agricultural policy the effects of factor mobility, induced by institutional changes, are analyzed. The analysis is based on six different scenarios. According to the results EU membership will accelerate growth in output, investment and consumption in the candidate countries in all scenarios. However, it turns out that factor mobility effects dominate those of conventional trade policy. Growth in national income will lag behind GDP growth because profits will be paid out to foreign investors. Migration will slow output growth in the candidate countries and accelerate growth in the existing Member States, while the trends in per capita consumption will be reversed; migration increases per capita consumption in the new Member States and reduces it slightly in the existing ones.

Suggested Citation

  • Vaittinen, Risto, 2002. "Eastern Enlargement of the EU: Factor Mobility and Transfers - Which Matters Most?," Conference papers 330979, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:pugtwp:330979
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/330979/files/401.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ahmad,Etisham & Stern,Nicholas, 1991. "The Theory and Practice of Tax Reform in Developing Countries," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521265638, January.
    2. Shoven,John B. & Whalley,John, 1992. "Applying General Equilibrium," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521266550, January.
    3. Loomis, John B., 1995. "Four models for determining environmental quality effects on recreational demand and regional economics," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 55-65, January.
    4. Khan, Haider A. & Thorbecke, Erik, 1989. "Macroeconomic effects of technology choice: Multiplier and structural path analysis within a SAM framework," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 131-156.
    5. Devarajan, Shantayanan & Ghanem, Hafez & Thierfelder, Karen, 1997. "Economic Reform and Labor Unions: A General-Equilibrium Analysis Applied to Bangladesh and Indonesia," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 11(1), pages 145-170, January.
    6. Bahri, Sjaiful & El-Said, Moataz & Robinson, Sherman & San, Nu Nu & Suryana, Achmad & Swastika, Dewa, 1997. "Rice price policies in Indonesia: a computable general equilibrium (CGE) analysis," TMD discussion papers 19, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    7. Robinson, Sherman & Roland-Holst, David W., 1988. "Macroeconomic structure and computable general equilibrium models," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 10(3), pages 353-375.
    8. Adelman, Irma & Robinson, Sherman, 1989. "Income distribution and development," Handbook of Development Economics, in: Hollis Chenery & T.N. Srinivasan (ed.), Handbook of Development Economics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 19, pages 949-1003, Elsevier.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Guilhoto, Joaquim J.M., 1995. "Um modelo computável de equilíbrio geral para planejamento e análise de políticas agrícolas (PAPA) na economia brasileira [A computable general equilibrium model for planning and analysis of agricultural policies (PAPA) in the Brazilian economy]," MPRA Paper 42349, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Guilhoto, Joaquim José Martins, 2011. "Análise de Insumo-Produto: Teoria e Fundamentos [Input-Output Analysis: Theory and Foundations]," MPRA Paper 32566, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Christos FLOROS & Pierre FAILLER, 2010. "Development of a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) Model for Fisheries," EcoMod2004 330600052, EcoMod.
    4. Marcos Esaú Domínguez Viera, 2009. "Aplicación de un modelo de multiplicadores contables y de análisis estructural a políticas sociales seleccionadas en el estado de Nuevo León," Ensayos Revista de Economia, Universidad Autonoma de Nuevo Leon, Facultad de Economia, vol. 0(2), pages 95-137, November.
    5. Alain Zantman, 1995. "Modèles d'équilibre général calculable et répartition des revenus dans les PED : quelques éléments d'évaluation," Revue Tiers Monde, Programme National Persée, vol. 36(142), pages 411-442.
    6. Robinson, Sherman & El-Said, Moataz & San, Nu Nu, 1998. "Rice policy, trade, and exchange rate changes in Indonesia: A general equilibrium analysis," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(3), pages 393-423.
    7. Guilhoto, Joaquim José Martins, 2001. "Leontief e insumo-produto: antecedentes, princípios e evolução [Leotief and input-output: background, principles and evolution]," MPRA Paper 54649, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Khan, haider, 2008. "Analyzing Poverty Impact of Trade Liberalization Policies in CGE Models: Theory and Some Policy Experiments in Agricultural and Non-agricultural Sectors in South Asia," MPRA Paper 7609, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Mar 2008.
    9. Anushree Sinha & Haider A. Khan, 2008. "Gender and Informal Sector Analysis in India: Economy Wide Approaches," WIDER Working Paper Series RP2008-65, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    10. Peter B. Dixon, 2006. "Evidence-based Trade Policy Decision Making in Australia and the Development of Computable General Equilibrium Modelling," Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre Working Papers g-163, Victoria University, Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre.
    11. De Santis, Roberto A., 1997. "The impact of a customs union with the EU on Turkey's welfare, employment and income distribution: An AGE analysis," Kiel Working Papers 843, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
    12. David Roland-Holst & Finn Tarp, 2006. "Globalization, Economic Reform, and Structural Price Transmission: Sam Decomposition Techniques with an Empirical Application to Vietnam," Economic Studies in Inequality, Social Exclusion, and Well-Being, in: Alain Janvry & Ravi Kanbur (ed.), Poverty, Inequality and Development, chapter 0, pages 287-307, Springer.
    13. Harris, Rebecca Lee & Löfgren, Hans & Robinson, Sherman, 2001. "A standard computable general equilibrium (CGE) model in GAMS," TMD discussion papers 75, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    14. van der Mensbrugghe, Dominique, 2013. "Modeling the Global Economy – Forward-Looking Scenarios for Agriculture," Handbook of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling, in: Peter B. Dixon & Dale Jorgenson (ed.), Handbook of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 0, pages 933-994, Elsevier.
    15. El-Said, Moataz & Lofgren, Hans & Robinson, Sherman, 2001. "The Impact Of Alternative Development Strategies On Growth And Distribution: Simulations With A Dynamic Model For Egypt," TMD Discussion Papers 16311, CGIAR, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    16. Marc Vielle & Alain L. Bernard, 1998. "Un exemple d'utilisation : le coût de politiques de réduction des gaz à effet de serre," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 136(5), pages 33-48.
    17. Haider A. Khan, 2007. "Social Accounting Matrix: A Very Short Introduction for Economic Modeling," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-477, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
    18. Khan, Haider A., 1999. "Sectoral Growth and Poverty Alleviation: A Multiplier Decomposition Technique Applied to South Africa," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 521-530, March.
    19. Sharma, Chanchal Kumar, 2004. "Implementing VAT in India :Implications for Federal Polity," MPRA Paper 206, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 25 Feb 2005.
    20. Coady, David & Grosh, Margaret & Hoddinott, John F., 2002. "Targeting outcomes redux," FCND briefs 144, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:pugtwp:330979. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: AgEcon Search (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/gtpurus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.