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Scenarios of Global Diets and the Impact on Land Resources

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  • Sands, Ronald

Abstract

We use a global computable-general-equilibrium (CGE) model based on GTAP social accounts to simulate alternative food consumption scenarios from the present through 2050. Scenarios of future population and income are taken from the Shared Socio-economic Pathways, which also provide narrative on aspects of development such as technological change, environmental protection, and changes in diets. A two-stage consumer demand system, with the linear expenditure system as the first stage, is used to keep per-capita calorie consumption in a plausible range. Demand system parameters are adjusted over time to simulate alternative diets.

Suggested Citation

  • Sands, Ronald, 2017. "Scenarios of Global Diets and the Impact on Land Resources," Conference papers 330175, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:pugtwp:330175
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    File URL: https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/330175/files/8625_Sands.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Elmar Kriegler & Jae Edmonds & Stéphane Hallegatte & Kristie Ebi & Tom Kram & Keywan Riahi & Harald Winkler & Detlef Vuuren, 2014. "A new scenario framework for climate change research: the concept of shared climate policy assumptions," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 122(3), pages 401-414, February.
    2. Detlef Vuuren & Elmar Kriegler & Brian O’Neill & Kristie Ebi & Keywan Riahi & Timothy Carter & Jae Edmonds & Stephane Hallegatte & Tom Kram & Ritu Mathur & Harald Winkler, 2014. "A new scenario framework for Climate Change Research: scenario matrix architecture," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 122(3), pages 373-386, February.
    3. Brian O’Neill & Elmar Kriegler & Keywan Riahi & Kristie Ebi & Stephane Hallegatte & Timothy Carter & Ritu Mathur & Detlef Vuuren, 2014. "A new scenario framework for climate change research: the concept of shared socioeconomic pathways," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 122(3), pages 387-400, February.
    4. Hugo Valin & Ronald D. Sands & Dominique van der Mensbrugghe & Gerald C. Nelson & Helal Ahammad & Elodie Blanc & Benjamin Bodirsky & Shinichiro Fujimori & Tomoko Hasegawa & Petr Havlik & Edwina Heyhoe, 2014. "The future of food demand: understanding differences in global economic models," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 45(1), pages 51-67, January.
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    Keywords

    Land Economics/Use;

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