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Gradual Land-use Change in New Zealand: Results from a Dynamic Econometric Model

Author

Listed:
  • Kerr, Suzi
  • Olssen, Alex

Abstract

Rural land use is important for New Zealand’s economic and environmental outcomes. Using a dynamic econometric model and recent New Zealand data, we estimate the response of land use to changing economic returns as proxied by relevant commodity prices. Because New Zealand is small, export prices are credibly exogenous. We show that land use responses can be slow. Our result implies that policy-induced land-use change is likely to be slow or costly.

Suggested Citation

  • Kerr, Suzi & Olssen, Alex, 2012. "Gradual Land-use Change in New Zealand: Results from a Dynamic Econometric Model," Motu Working Papers 291420, Motu Economic and Public Policy Research.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:motuwp:291420
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.291420
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    1. is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Carver, Thomas & Dawson, Patrick & Kerr, Suzi, 2017. "Including Forestry in an Emissions Trading Scheme: Lessons from New Zealand," Motu Working Papers 290515, Motu Economic and Public Policy Research.
    3. Bill Kaye-Blake & Chris Schilling & Elizabeth Post, 2014. "Validation of an Agricultural MAS for Southland, New Zealand," Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, vol. 17(4), pages 1-5.
    4. Anastasiadis, Simon & Kerr, Suzi & Zhang, Wei & Allan, Corey & Power, WIlliam, 2014. "Land Use in Rural New Zealand: Spatial Land Use, Land-use Change, and Model Validation," Motu Working Papers 290607, Motu Economic and Public Policy Research.
    5. Timar, Levente & Kerr, Suzi, 2014. "Land-use Intensity and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in the LURNZ Model," Motu Working Papers 189415, Motu Economic and Public Policy Research.
    6. Kerr, Suzi & Anastasiadis, Simon & Olssen, Alex & Power, William & Timar, Levente & Zhang, Wei, 2012. "Spatial and Temporal Responses to an Emissions Trading System Covering Agriculture and Forestry: Simulation Results from New Zealand," Motu Working Papers 189545, Motu Economic and Public Policy Research.
    7. Allan, Corey & Kerr, Suzi, 2013. "Examining Patterns in and Drivers of Rural Land Values," 2013 Conference, August 28-30, 2013, Christchurch, New Zealand 160191, New Zealand Agricultural and Resource Economics Society.
    8. Levente Timar, 2016. "Does money grow on trees? Mitigation under climate policy in a heterogeneous sheep-beef sector," Motu Working Papers 16_09, Motu Economic and Public Policy Research.
    9. Schilling, Chris & Kaye-Blake, William & Post, Elizabeth & Rains, Scott, 2012. "The importance of farmer behaviour: an application of Desktop MAS, a multi-agent system model for rural New Zealand communities," 2012 Conference, August 31, 2012, Nelson, New Zealand 136070, New Zealand Agricultural and Resource Economics Society.
    10. repec:lic:licosd:33613 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Allan, Corey & Kerr, Suzi & Owen, Sally, 2020. "Over-valued or over-looked? A theoretical and empirical investigation of agricultural land values against profitability in Aotearoa New Zealand," Working Paper Series 9129, Victoria University of Wellington, School of Economics and Finance.
    12. Winchester, Niven & White, Dominic, 2022. "The Climate PoLicy ANalysis (C-PLAN) Model, Version 1.0," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(C).
    13. Miroslava Rajcaniova & d'Artis Kancs & Pavel Ciaian, 2014. "Bioenergy and global land-use change," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(26), pages 3163-3179, September.
    14. Dorner, Zack & Hyslop, Dean, 2014. "Modelling Changing Rural Land Use in New Zealand 1997 to 2008 Using a Multinomial Logit Approach," Motu Working Papers 290602, Motu Economic and Public Policy Research.
    15. Kerr, Suzi, 2016. "Agricultural Emissions Mitigation in New Zealand: Answers to Questions from the Parliamentary Commisioner for the Environment," Motu Working Papers 290563, Motu Economic and Public Policy Research.
    16. Indrakumar Vetharaniam & Levente Timar & C. Jill Stanley & Karin Müller & Carlo van den Dijssel & Brent Clothier, 2022. "Modelling Climate Change Impacts on Location Suitability and Spatial Footprint of Apple and Kiwifruit," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(10), pages 1-27, September.
    17. Daigneault, Adam & Greenhalgh, Suzie & Samarasinghe, Oshadhi, . "A response to Doole and Marsh (2013) article: methodological limitations in the evaluation of policies to reduce nitrate leaching from New Zealand agriculture," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 58(2).

    More about this item

    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • Q15 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Land Ownership and Tenure; Land Reform; Land Use; Irrigation; Agriculture and Environment
    • Q24 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Renewable Resources and Conservation - - - Land

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