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1988 Japanese Beef Market Access Agreement: Forecast Simulation Analysis

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  • Wahl, Thomas I.
  • Williams, Gary W.
  • Hayes, Dermot J.

Abstract

This paper uses dynamic simulation analysis to consider the likely consequences of the 1988 Japanese Beef Market Access Agreement (BMAA) on the Japanese livestock industry and beef imports. Using a simultaneous equations, econometric model of Japanese livestock markets, a forecast baseline up to 1997 was first established, asswning that the Japanese beef import quota continues to increase by 9,000 tons annually as under the 1984 agreement The restrictions of the new agreement were then imposed on the model. The results lead to a number of conclusions. Beef imports will increase to the new quota level in the first three years and continue increasing at about the same rate thereafter. The shift from the import quota to the import tariff in 1991 will have little effect on imports or prices. The US share of increasing Japanese beef imports will increase at the expense of Australia and New 7.ealand. The effects of the BMAA on the Japanese beef industry will be significant but less than devastating. The pigmeat industry will also be affected. The chicken and fish industries will be little affected. Finally, the degree of responsiveness of Japanese cattle prcxiucers to the expected beef price decline will significantly affect the outcome.

Suggested Citation

  • Wahl, Thomas I. & Williams, Gary W. & Hayes, Dermot J., 1989. "1988 Japanese Beef Market Access Agreement: Forecast Simulation Analysis," 1989 Occasional Paper Series No. 5 197681, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
  • Handle: RePEc:ags:iaaeo5:197681
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.197681
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Karl D. Meilke & G.R. Griffith, 1981. "An application of the Market Share Approach to the demand for soyabean and rapeseed oil," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Foundation for the European Review of Agricultural Economics, vol. 8(1), pages 85-97.
    2. Dermot J. Hayes & Thomas I. Wahl & Gary W. Williams, 1990. "Testing Restrictions on a Model of Japanese Meat Demand," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 72(3), pages 556-566.
    3. Wahl, Thomas I. & Hayes, Dermot J. & Williams, Gary W., 1987. "Japanese Beef Policy and GATT Negotiations: An Analysis of Reducing Assistance to Beef Producers," Working Papers 51242, International Agricultural Trade Research Consortium.
    4. Chalfant, James A, 1987. "A Globally Flexible, Almost Ideal Demand System," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 5(2), pages 233-242, April.
    5. Miyazaki, Akira, 1986. "Production and Consumption of Beef in Japan," Western Region Archives 279353, Western Region - Western Extension Directors Association (WEDA).
    6. Deaton, Angus S & Muellbauer, John, 1980. "An Almost Ideal Demand System," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 70(3), pages 312-326, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Morison, Julian B. & Officer, Linda J., 1992. "Factors Affecting Japanese Investment in the Australian Beef Industry," Review of Marketing and Agricultural Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 60(03), pages 1-12, December.
    2. Lin, Biing-Hwan & Makus, Larry D., 1990. "TOTAL IMPORTS AND IMPORT PATTERNS OF BARLEY INTO JAPAN: Implications of the 1988 Japanese Beef Market Access Agreement," A.E. Research Series 140525, University of Idaho, Department of Agricultural Economics and Rural Sociology.

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