The unknown link between aspirations and livelihoods: Do aspirations explain gendered livelihood diversification?

Gendered livelihood activities explain women’s lower income and higher poverty rates than men. Existing hypotheses attribute these gendered livelihoods to inequitable access and agency over household and community assets. However, this hypothesis does not explain why some people choose not to diversify despite asset availability. Personal aspirations may influence diversification decisions, yet, the role of these subjective mechanisms remains unknown. Here we show the role of aspirations in shaping gendered livelihood diversity and mobilities towards diversification, particularly in pastoral zones practicing agropastoralism in Baringo, Kenya. Through Poisson, multinomial logit regression, and robustness checks, we find that aspirations positively correlate with livelihood diversity with stronger associations than other intrinsic factors and certain material assets. After controlling for capital assets, self-efficacy, and locus of control, people with higher aspirations are more likely to be in long-term diversification than in late diversification and singular livelihoods, particularly non-farm-forest-use activities. These patterns are more pronounced in higher-income and men-headed households but less so in women-headed households. Women with higher aspirations tend to rely on non-farm-forest-based activities, which generate the lowest income. Higher aspirations of some lower-income households also correspond to intermittent diversification. Our results show that aspirations are an important determinant of livelihood diversification decisions, but they alone are insufficient. Women and the poor may aspire to diversify but they require essential capital and social cognitive traits to realize their desired states. Hence, interventions aimed at promoting livelihood diversification must simultaneously address aspirations and material assets. The inclusion of people’s aspirations in the livelihoods analysis may promote long-term positive economic behaviour given their forward looking nature.