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Economic Effects of Climate Change on Agriculture Productivity by 2035: A case study of Pakistan


  • Khan, M.A.
  • Tahir, A.


Climate Change is an ever growing issue with a great importance due to wide socio-economic effects. Agriculture is the most climate sensitive economic sector that is influenced both positively and negatively by climate change. A change in temperature or precipitation could cause a significant change in crops productivity and yields. Different crop/bio-physical experts have been making efforts to process the impact of climate on crop yields through different crop modellings using input from different global climate models. In this research, the output of the crop models is used as a shock in the global computable general equilibrium economic model to evaluate the economic effects of climate change. Pakistan has two crop seasons – Kharif and Rabi- therefore two major crops i.e. Wheat and Rice have been chosen for this analysis. A Baseline scenario, representing business as usual with no change in climate, has been created using projections for GDP, population, factor supplies, and required food production. A counterfactual experiment has done using the same GDP and population growth as in the baseline but with addition of crop yield shocks from bio-physical models. A comparison of these two experiments has shown the economic effects of climate change by 2035.

Suggested Citation

  • Khan, M.A. & Tahir, A., 2018. "Economic Effects of Climate Change on Agriculture Productivity by 2035: A case study of Pakistan," 2018 Conference, July 28-August 2, 2018, Vancouver, British Columbia 275969, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
  • Handle: RePEc:ags:iaae18:275969
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.275969

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Angel Aguiar & Badri Narayanan & Robert McDougall, 2016. "An Overview of the GTAP 9 Data Base," Journal of Global Economic Analysis, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University, vol. 1(1), pages 181-208, June.
    2. Jayatilleke S. Bandara & Yiyong Cai, 2014. "The impact of climate change on food crop productivity, food prices and food security in South Asia," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 44(4), pages 451-465.
    3. Molua, Ernest L. & Lambi, Cornelius M., 2007. "The economic impact of climate change on agriculture in Cameroon," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4364, The World Bank.
    4. Molua, Ernest L., 2008. "Turning up the heat on African agriculture: The impact of climate change on Cameroon’s agriculture," African Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, African Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 2(1), pages 1-20, March.
    5. Marshall Burke & Kyle Emerick, 2016. "Adaptation to Climate Change: Evidence from US Agriculture," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 8(3), pages 106-140, August.
    6. Munir Ahmad & Umar Farooq, 2010. "The State of Food Security in Pakistan: Future Challenges and Coping Strategies," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 49(4), pages 903-923.
    7. Kabubo-Mariara, Jane & Karanja, Fredrick K, 2007. "The economic impact of climate change on Kenyan crop agriculture : a ricardian approach," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4334, The World Bank.
    8. Mirza Nomman Ahmed & Michael Schmitz, 2011. "Economic assessment of the impact of climate change on the agriculture of Pakistan," Business and Economic Horizons (BEH), Prague Development Center, vol. 4(1), pages 1-12, January.
    9. repec:ags:pdcbeh:204181 is not listed on IDEAS
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    Agricultural Finance; Environmental Economics and Policy; International Development;

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