IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ags/iaae18/275876.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Climate Change, Agricultural Productivity and Economic Performance: an exercise using a Dynamic CGE Model

Author

Listed:
  • Nazareth, M.
  • Cunha, D.
  • Gurgel, A.

Abstract

Agriculture is highly dependent on environment conditions, mainly temperature, precipitation and soil quality, thus it becomes the most vulnerable economic sector to the new climate conditions projected for the next decades. Therefore, knowing these impacts and the consequences for the rest of the economy is essential to map the effects and to elaborate, if necessary, mitigating environmental and economic policies. However, studies focusing on Brazil based on more regionalized data but linked to the rest of the world using dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) models are still very incipient. So this is precisely the gap that this article intends to fill, offering a modest contribution to the debate. Then, the objective of this paper is to determine the economic impact of the estimated changes in average agricultural productivity for the coming decades using a dynamic CGE model, the PAEGDyn linked to GTAP. Basically, the results found confirm trends in other works: the tropical regions in the world will be the most affected by the probable increase in the planet temperature, decreases in agricultural productivity and, thus, a reduction in economic performance.

Suggested Citation

  • Nazareth, M. & Cunha, D. & Gurgel, A., 2018. "Climate Change, Agricultural Productivity and Economic Performance: an exercise using a Dynamic CGE Model," 2018 Conference, July 28-August 2, 2018, Vancouver, British Columbia 275876, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
  • Handle: RePEc:ags:iaae18:275876
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.275876
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/275876/files/2640.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Edson Paulo Domingues & Aline Souza Magalhães & Ricardo Machado Ruiz, 2008. "Cenários de mudanças climáticas e agricultura no Brasil: impactos econômicos na Região Nordeste," Textos para Discussão Cedeplar-UFMG td340, Cedeplar, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais.
    2. Assunção, Juliano & Chein, Flávia, 2016. "Climate change and agricultural productivity in Brazil: future perspectives," Environment and Development Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 21(5), pages 581-602, October.
    3. Eduardo Amaral Haddad & Edson Paulo Domingues & Fernando Salgueiro Perobelli & Eduardo Simões de Almeida & Carlos Roberto Azzoni & Joaquim J. M. & Guilhoto Fabio Kanczuk, 2010. "Impactos Econômicos Das Mudanças Climáticas No Brasil," Anais do XIV Seminário sobre a Economia Mineira [Proceedings of the 14th Seminar on the Economy of Minas Gerais],in: Anais do XIV Seminário sobre a Economia Mineira [Proceedings of the 14th Seminar on the Economy of Minas Gerais] Cedeplar, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais.
    4. Rutherford, Thomas F, 1999. "Applied General Equilibrium Modeling with MPSGE as a GAMS Subsystem: An Overview of the Modeling Framework and Syntax," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 14(1-2), pages 1-46, October.
    5. Hertel, Thomas, 1997. "Global Trade Analysis: Modeling and applications," GTAP Books, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University, number 7685.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Agricultural and Food Policy; Environmental Economics and Policy;

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:iaae18:275876. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (AgEcon Search). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/iaaeeea.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.