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Climate Change, Agricultural Productivity and Economic Performance: an exercise using a Dynamic CGE Model


  • Nazareth, M.
  • Cunha, D.
  • Gurgel, A.


Agriculture is highly dependent on environment conditions, mainly temperature, precipitation and soil quality, thus it becomes the most vulnerable economic sector to the new climate conditions projected for the next decades. Therefore, knowing these impacts and the consequences for the rest of the economy is essential to map the effects and to elaborate, if necessary, mitigating environmental and economic policies. However, studies focusing on Brazil based on more regionalized data but linked to the rest of the world using dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) models are still very incipient. So this is precisely the gap that this article intends to fill, offering a modest contribution to the debate. Then, the objective of this paper is to determine the economic impact of the estimated changes in average agricultural productivity for the coming decades using a dynamic CGE model, the PAEGDyn linked to GTAP. Basically, the results found confirm trends in other works: the tropical regions in the world will be the most affected by the probable increase in the planet temperature, decreases in agricultural productivity and, thus, a reduction in economic performance.

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  • Nazareth, M. & Cunha, D. & Gurgel, A., 2018. "Climate Change, Agricultural Productivity and Economic Performance: an exercise using a Dynamic CGE Model," 2018 Conference, July 28-August 2, 2018, Vancouver, British Columbia 275876, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
  • Handle: RePEc:ags:iaae18:275876
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.275876

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Edson Paulo Domingues & Aline Souza Magalhães & Ricardo Machado Ruiz, 2008. "Cenários de mudanças climáticas e agricultura no Brasil: impactos econômicos na Região Nordeste," Textos para Discussão Cedeplar-UFMG td340, Cedeplar, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais.
    2. Assunção, Juliano & Chein, Flávia, 2016. "Climate change and agricultural productivity in Brazil: future perspectives," Environment and Development Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 21(5), pages 581-602, October.
    3. Eduardo Amaral Haddad & Edson Paulo Domingues & Fernando Salgueiro Perobelli & Eduardo Simões de Almeida & Carlos Roberto Azzoni & Joaquim J. M. & Guilhoto Fabio Kanczuk, 2010. "Impactos Econômicos Das Mudanças Climáticas No Brasil," Anais do XIV Seminário sobre a Economia Mineira [Proceedings of the 14th Seminar on the Economy of Minas Gerais],in: Anais do XIV Seminário sobre a Economia Mineira [Proceedings of the 14th Seminar on the Economy of Minas Gerais] Cedeplar, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais.
    4. Rutherford, Thomas F, 1999. "Applied General Equilibrium Modeling with MPSGE as a GAMS Subsystem: An Overview of the Modeling Framework and Syntax," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 14(1-2), pages 1-46, October.
    5. Hertel, Thomas, 1997. "Global Trade Analysis: Modeling and applications," GTAP Books, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University, number 7685.
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    Agricultural and Food Policy; Environmental Economics and Policy;

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