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The impacst of CAP post-2013 and regional climate change on agricultural land use intensity and the environment in Austria

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  • Kirchner, Mathias
  • Schonhart, Martin
  • Schmid, Erwin

Abstract

We assess anticipated changes in policy and regional climate on agrarian land use development indicators in Austria for the period 2025-2040. A spatially explicit bio-economic integrated assessment quantifies impacts at 1km grid resolution in order to take into account the heterogeneity of Austrian agricultural landscapes. The impacts of the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) post-2013 on regional producer surplus are slightly positive and payments shift from intensive to extensive production regions. The economic impact of climate change depends on changes in precipitation patterns. Policy change leads to intensification of land use in favorable cropland and grassland regions and extensification in marginal regions. Regional climate change amplifies land use intensification with increases in crop yields, e.g. in Alpine regions, and land use extensification with declining crop yields, e.g. in eastern cropland regions. Environmental indicators deteriorate at national level in all scenarios. The highly spatially diverging impacts call for more targeted policy measures.

Suggested Citation

  • Kirchner, Mathias & Schonhart, Martin & Schmid, Erwin, 2015. "The impacst of CAP post-2013 and regional climate change on agricultural land use intensity and the environment in Austria," 2015 Conference, August 9-14, 2015, Milan, Italy 212004, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:iaae15:212004
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.212004
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    File URL: http://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/212004/files/Kirchner-The%20impacts%20of%20CAP%20post-2013%20and%20regional%20climate%20change-839.pdf
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    1. repec:ipt:wpaper:jrc73276 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Leclère, David & Jayet, Pierre-Alain & de Noblet-Ducoudré, Nathalie, 2013. "Farm-level Autonomous Adaptation of European Agricultural Supply to Climate Change," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 1-14.
    3. Henseler, Martin & Wirsig, Alexander & Herrmann, Sylvia & Krimly, Tatjana & Dabbert, Stephan, 2009. "Modeling the impact of global change on regional agricultural land use through an activity-based non-linear programming approach," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 100(1-3), pages 31-42, April.
    4. Bruce A. McCarl, 1982. "Cropping Activities in Agricultural Sector Models: A Methodological Proposal," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 64(4), pages 768-772.
    5. Marianne Lefebvre & Maria Espinosa & Sergio Gomez-y-Paloma, 2012. "The influence of the Common Agricultural Policy on agricultural landscapes," JRC Working Papers JRC73276, Joint Research Centre (Seville site).
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    Keywords

    Agricultural and Food Policy; Environmental Economics and Policy;

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