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Analyzing Drivers of World Food Prices: Weather, Growth, and Biofuels


  • Saunders, Caroline M.
  • Kaye-Blake, William
  • Cagatay, Selim


The recent rise of food cost in world markets has accelerated the research examining the underlying factors for this rise. The present research investigated the separate and combined impacts of three factors thought to contribute to the price rise: adverse weather events, strong and sustained growth in high populated countries, and increased biofuels production. The research further analysed the effects of these price rises on consumption expenditures in Brazil, China and India. Analyses were carried out using a partial equilibrium trade model with a focus on the 2004 to 2007 period. The modelling suggests that the most important factor behind the price rise depends on the commodity, with maize/corn, oilseeds, and sugar most affected by biofuels, while some meats and dairy products are more affected by income growth.

Suggested Citation

  • Saunders, Caroline M. & Kaye-Blake, William & Cagatay, Selim, 2009. "Analyzing Drivers of World Food Prices: Weather, Growth, and Biofuels," 2009 Conference, August 16-22, 2009, Beijing, China 51460, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
  • Handle: RePEc:ags:iaae09:51460

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Colman, David R., 1983. "A Review of the Arts of Supply Response Analysis," Review of Marketing and Agricultural Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 0(Number 03), pages 1-30, December.
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    Cited by:

    1. Wei-Ming Tian & Zhang-Yue Zhou, 2011. "Fluctuations of Prices in the World Grain Market: Policy Responses by the Chinese Government," Chapters,in: China’s Economy in the Post-WTO Environment, chapter 8 Edward Elgar Publishing.


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