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Viral Impact: Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza H5N1 Milk Loss on U.S. Dairy Farms

Author

Listed:
  • Morse, Madison
  • Whitman, Kathy
  • Urie, Natalie
  • DeLay, Nathan
  • Lombard, Jason

Abstract

Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) H5N1 had a significant impact on U.S. dairy production during the outbreak beginning in 2024. We estimate the causal effect of HPAI H5N1 on per-cow milk production using a staggered differences-in-differences (DiD) analysis. Results indicate that HPAI H5N1 reduces per-cow average daily milk production by 7.52%. Substantial treatment effect heterogeneity is identified with some group-level treatment effects exceeding 20%. We provide the most comprehensive empirical evidence to date on the production impacts of HPAI H5N1 on U.S. dairy farms. This study offers insights on transboundary animal disease costs for policymakers designing compensation programs and disease mitigation strategies.

Suggested Citation

  • Morse, Madison & Whitman, Kathy & Urie, Natalie & DeLay, Nathan & Lombard, Jason, 2026. "Viral Impact: Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza H5N1 Milk Loss on U.S. Dairy Farms," 2026 Annual Meeting, July 26 - 28, 2026, Kansas City, Missouri 404691, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:aaea26:404691
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.404691
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Sun, Liyang & Abraham, Sarah, 2021. "Estimating dynamic treatment effects in event studies with heterogeneous treatment effects," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 225(2), pages 175-199.
    2. Callaway, Brantly & Sant’Anna, Pedro H.C., 2021. "Difference-in-Differences with multiple time periods," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 225(2), pages 200-230.
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