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Does Trade Stabilize Food Prices Evenly During a Supply Shock? Evidence from India’s Pulses Market

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  • Adhikari, Ashish
  • Sheldon, Ian

Abstract

Developing countries often rely on trade policy to stabilize food prices during supply disruptions, yet the spatial distribution of these benefits remains poorly understood. This paper studies India’s 2015–2016 pulses crisis, when consecutive domestic production shortfalls sharply raised pulses prices and triggered a surge in imports. We examine whether trade-based price stabilization reached domestic markets evenly or weakened with distance from major import ports. Using a district-level panel of wholesale pulses price from 2009 to 2019 and a difference-in-differences design, we show that the import surge did not provide uniform price relief. During the crisis, each additional 100 kilometers from a major import port translated into about a 1.7 percent larger increase in pulses price. A simple calibration suggests that imports lowered prices by about 11 percent near ports, but more than half of this relief had dissipated by the median district-port distance. The results suggest that while imports can moderate national price spikes, their stabilizing effects may be limited by incomplete internal market integration.

Suggested Citation

  • Adhikari, Ashish & Sheldon, Ian, 2026. "Does Trade Stabilize Food Prices Evenly During a Supply Shock? Evidence from India’s Pulses Market," 2026 Annual Meeting, July 26 - 28, 2026, Kansas City, Missouri 404639, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
  • Handle: RePEc:ags:aaea26:404639
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.404639
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Xu, Yang & Yang, Xi, 2021. "Access to ports and the welfare gains from domestic transportation infrastructure," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    2. Gouel, Christophe & Laborde, David, 2021. "The crucial role of domestic and international market-mediated adaptation to climate change," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 106(C).
    3. Nelson B. Villoria, 2026. "Trade frictions and domestic food price stability in the presence of large‐scale climate shocks," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 108(1), pages 285-308, January.
    4. Poornima Varma, 2022. "Pulses for Food and Nutritional Security of India," India Studies in Business and Economics, Springer, number 978-981-19-3185-7, September.
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