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Impact of Hydroponic Technology Adoption on Vegetable Production in the United States

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  • Lee, Yoonjung
  • Bovay, John

Abstract

Hydroponic systems constitute a growing segment of U.S. vegetable production, offering advantages in input efficiency and year-round cultivation. This paper develops a two-stage analytical framework to examine the determinants of hydroponics adoption and to quantify its prospective market-level implications. In the first stage, two theoretically grounded approximate measures—area-based and operation-based adoption rates—are constructed using publicly available data from USDA NASS, PRISM, EIA, and the U.S. Census. A random forest model is employed to identify key predictors and forecast state-level adoption through 2024. The results highlight distinct adoption mechanisms shaped by demographic, economic, and environmental factors. In the second stage, the predicted adoption rates are incorporated into a partial equilibrium supply model accounting for technological heterogeneity. Simulations estimate the effects on aggregate supply and producer surplus. The framework offers a novel approach for linking technology diffusion with market-level welfare analysis.

Suggested Citation

  • Lee, Yoonjung & Bovay, John, 2025. "Impact of Hydroponic Technology Adoption on Vegetable Production in the United States," 2025 AAEA & WAEA Joint Annual Meeting, July 27-29, 2025, Denver, CO 361075, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:aaea25:361075
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.361075
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Dohlman, Erik & Maguire, Karen & Davis, Wilma V. & Husby, Megan & Bovay, John & Weber, Catharine & Lee, Yoonjung, 2024. "Trends, Insights, and Future Prospects for Production in Controlled Environment Agriculture and Agrivoltaics Systems," Economic Information Bulletin 340508, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    2. Stefan Koppmair & Menale Kassie & Matin Qaim, 2017. "The influence of farm input subsidies on the adoption of natural resource management technologies," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 61(4), pages 539-556, October.
    3. Schimmelpfennig, David, 2016. "Farm Profits and Adoption of Precision Agriculture," Economic Research Report 249773, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    4. Julian M. Alston & Philip G. Pardey & Jennifer S. James & Matthew A. Anderson, 2009. "The Economics of Agricultural R&D," Annual Review of Resource Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 1(1), pages 537-566, September.
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