IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ags/aaea25/360644.html

Drivers of Commodity Volatility in the Biofuel Era

Author

Listed:
  • Grimaldi Avileis, Felipe

Abstract

This paper investigates how the increased use of corn and soybean oil as motor fuel feed-stock, driven by biofuel mandates, has affected price volatility. I model and study two different volatility drivers affected by the mandates: market integration and changes in the demand curve. Using the implementation of the Renewable Fuel Standard and the Renewable Diesel boom as key events, I measure the effects of these two drivers on implied volatilities using causal inference methods and a novel set of synthetic controls. Results indicate a 19% rise in corn volatility and a 18% increase in soy bean oil volatility, on average, after the implementation and expansion of biofuel mandates. In the case of corn, the higher shares of corn used for fuel and a high volatility regime in energy markets are the drivers of volatility changes. For soybean oil, the increase is mostly driven by changes in marginal demand elasticity, as growing domestic demand led to the cessation of exports.

Suggested Citation

  • Grimaldi Avileis, Felipe, 2025. "Drivers of Commodity Volatility in the Biofuel Era," 2025 AAEA & WAEA Joint Annual Meeting, July 27-29, 2025, Denver, CO 360644, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:aaea25:360644
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.360644
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/360644/files/75157_98909_105300_aaea_fga_final.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.22004/ag.econ.360644?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Marc Nerlove, 1958. "Adaptive Expectations and Cobweb Phenomena," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 72(2), pages 227-240.
    2. Avinash K. Dixit & Robert S. Pindyck, 1994. "Investment under Uncertainty," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 5474, December.
    3. Christiane Baumeister & Gert Peersman, 2013. "The Role Of Time‐Varying Price Elasticities In Accounting For Volatility Changes In The Crude Oil Market," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(7), pages 1087-1109, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Min, Shi & Wang, Xiaobing & Liu, Min & Jikun, Huang, "undated". "The Asymmetric Response of Farmers to the Expected Change of Rubber Price: the Roles of Sunk Cost and Path Dependency," 2018 Annual Meeting, August 5-7, Washington, D.C. 274122, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    2. Comincioli, Nicola & Hagspiel, Verena & Kort, Peter M. & Menoncin, Francesco & Miniaci, Raffaele & Vergalli, Sergio, 2021. "Mothballing in a Duopoly: Evidence from a (Shale) Oil Market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(C).
    3. Min, Shi & Wang, Xiaobing & Liu, Min & Huang, Jikun, 2018. "The asymmetric response of farmers to an expected change in the price of rubber: The roles of sunk costs and path dependency," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 585-594.
    4. Ben Abdallah, Skander & Lasserre, Pierre, 2016. "Asset retirement with infinitely repeated alternative replacements: Harvest age and species choice in forestry," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 144-164.
    5. Ansgar Belke & Matthias Göcke & Martin Günther, 2009. "When Does It Hurt?: The Exchange Rate "Pain Threshold" for German Exports," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 943, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    6. Chatterjee Pratiti, 2019. "Asymmetric impact of uncertainty in recessions: are emerging countries more vulnerable?," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 23(2), pages 1-27, April.
    7. Marco Cucculelli & Barbara Ermini, 2012. "Individual risk attitude, product innovation and firm performance. Evidence from survey data," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 32(4), pages 3197-3212.
    8. Ferrari, Giorgio & Salminen, Paavo, 2016. "Irreversible Investment under Lévy Uncertainty: an Equation for the Optimal Boundary," Center for Mathematical Economics Working Papers 530, Center for Mathematical Economics, Bielefeld University.
    9. Di Corato, Luca & Moretto, Michele, 2011. "Investing in biogas: Timing, technological choice and the value of flexibility from input mix," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(6), pages 1186-1193.
    10. Rosa-Isabel González-Muñoz & Jesús Molina-Muñoz & Andrés Mora-Valencia & Javier Perote, 2024. "Real Options Volatility Surface for Valuing Renewable Energy Projects," Energies, MDPI, vol. 17(5), pages 1-13, March.
    11. d’Amato, Maurizio & Zrobek, Sabina & Renigier Bilozor, Malgorzata & Walacik, Marek & Mercadante, Giuseppe, 2019. "Valuing the effect of the change of zoning on underdeveloped land using fuzzy real option approach," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 365-374.
    12. Nishide, Katsumasa & Tian, Yuan, 2011. "Compensation measures for alliance formation: A real options analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 219-228.
    13. Checherita-Westphal, Cristina & Rother, Philipp, 2010. "The impact of high and growing government debt on economic growth: an empirical investigation for the euro area," Working Paper Series 1237, European Central Bank.
    14. Timothy Erickson & Toni M. Whited, 2010. "Erratum: Measurement Error and the Relationship between Investment and q," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 118(6), pages 1252-1257.
    15. Sevcan Yesiltas, 2009. "Financing Constraints and Investment: The Case of Turkish Manufacturing Firms," 2009 Meeting Papers 874, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    16. Imran Shah, 2012. "Revisiting the Dynamic Effects of Oil Price Shock on Small Developing Economies," Bristol Economics Discussion Papers 12/626, School of Economics, University of Bristol, UK.
    17. Hervé-Mignucci, Morgan, 2011. "Rôle du signal prix du carbone sur les décisions d'investissement des entreprises," Economics Thesis from University Paris Dauphine, Paris Dauphine University, number 123456789/8200 edited by Keppler, Jan Horst.
    18. T Heikkinen & K Pietola, 2006. "Rural Investment and the Cost of Income Uncertainty," ERSA conference papers ersa06p51, European Regional Science Association.
    19. Ilker Ersegun Kayhan & Glenn P. Jenkins, 2016. "Determination of Socially Equitable Guarantees for PPPs: A Toll-Road Case from Turkey," Development Discussion Papers 2016-06, JDI Executive Programs.
    20. Rosati, Nicoletta & Bellia, Mario & Matos, Pedro Verga & Oliveira, Vasco, 2020. "Ratings matter: Announcements in times of crisis and the dynamics of stock markets," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:aaea25:360644. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: AgEcon Search (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/aaeaaea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.