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Climate Change Influences On The Risk Of Avian Influenza Outbreaks And Associated Economic Loss

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  • Mu, Jianhong H.
  • McCarl, Bruce A.
  • Wu, Ximing
  • Gan, Li

Abstract

This paper examines the effect that climate has on Avian Influenza outbreak probability. The statistical analysis shows across a broad region the probability of an outbreak declines by 0.22% when the temperature rises 1 Celsius degree and increases by 0.34% when precipitation increases by 1millimeter. These results indicate that the realized climate change of the last 20 years not only has been a factor behind recent HPAI outbreaks, but that climate change is likely to play an even greater role in the future. The statistical results indicate that overall, the risk of an AI outbreak has been increased by 51% under past climate change and 3-4% under future climate change. An economic evaluation shows the increased probability of outbreaks has caused damages of about $107 million in China and $29 million in the United States due to past climate change. In the year of 2011-2030, for countries with a high proportion of chicken production, economic loss could reach $105-$146 million in China and $12-$18 million in the United Sates.

Suggested Citation

  • Mu, Jianhong H. & McCarl, Bruce A. & Wu, Ximing & Gan, Li, 2011. "Climate Change Influences On The Risk Of Avian Influenza Outbreaks And Associated Economic Loss," 2011 Annual Meeting, July 24-26, 2011, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania 103637, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
  • Handle: RePEc:ags:aaea11:103637
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    File URL: http://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/103637/files/Climate_Change_Influences_on_the_Risk_of_Avian_Influenza_Outbreaks_and_Associated_Economic_Lossx.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Wooldridge, Jeffrey M., 2000. "A framework for estimating dynamic, unobserved effects panel data models with possible feedback to future explanatory variables," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 68(3), pages 245-250, September.
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    Keywords

    Environmental Economics and Policy; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods;

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