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Modeling Amazon Deforestation for Policy Purposes

Author

Listed:
  • Clive W. J. Granger

    (University of California - San Diego)

  • Lykke E. Andersen

    (Institute for Advanced Development Studies)

Abstract

Brazil has long ago removed most of the perverse government incentives that stimulated massive deforestation in the Amazon in the 70s and 80s, but one highly controversial policy remains: Road building. While data is now abundantly available due to the constant satellite surveillance of the Amazon, the analytical methods typically used to analyze the impact of roads on natural vegetation cover are methodologically weak and not very helpful to guide public policy. This paper discusses the respective weaknesses of typical GIS analysis and typical municipality level regression analysis, and shows what would be needed to construct an ideal model of deforestation processes. It also presents an alternative approach that is much less demanding in terms of modeling and estimation and more useful for policy makers as well.

Suggested Citation

  • Clive W. J. Granger & Lykke E. Andersen, 2006. "Modeling Amazon Deforestation for Policy Purposes," Development Research Working Paper Series 12/2006, Institute for Advanced Development Studies.
    • Handle: RePEc:adv:wpaper:200612
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    File URL: http://www.inesad.edu.bo/pdf/wp12_2006.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. João S. Campari, 2005. "The Economics of Deforestation in the Amazon," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 3465, August.
    2. Lykke E. Andersen & Juan Carlos Ledezma & Martin Vargas, 2006. "Un Mosaico de Conservación, Desarrollo Humano y Tensiones en el Corredor Amboró-Madidi," Development Research Working Paper Series 04/2006, Institute for Advanced Development Studies.
    3. Lykke E. Andersen, 2006. "El Impacto de los Cambios en el Uso de Tierra en el Departamento de Santa Cruz," Development Research Working Paper Series 11/2006, Institute for Advanced Development Studies.
    4. Granger, Clive W. J. & Jeon, Yongil, 2004. "Thick modeling," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 323-343, March.
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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • Q56 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Environment and Development; Environment and Trade; Sustainability; Environmental Accounts and Accounting; Environmental Equity; Population Growth
    • Q58 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Environmental Economics: Government Policy

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