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On the Simultaneity Problem in the Aid and Growth Debate

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  • Markus Bruckner

    () (School of Economics, University of Adelaide)

Abstract

This paper shows that foreign aid has a signicant positive average effect on real per capita GPD growth if, and only if, the quantitatively large negative reverse causal effect of per capita GDP growth on foreign aid is adjusted for in the growth regression. Instrumental variables estimates yield that a 1 percentage point increase in GDP per capita growth decreased foreign aid by over 4 percent. Adjusting for this quantitatively large, negative reverse causal effect of economic growth on foreign aid yields that a 1 percent increase in foreign aid increased real per capita GDP growth by around 0.1 percentage points.

Suggested Citation

  • Markus Bruckner, 2011. "On the Simultaneity Problem in the Aid and Growth Debate," School of Economics Working Papers 2011-01, University of Adelaide, School of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:adl:wpaper:2011-01
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    File URL: http://www.economics.adelaide.edu.au/research/papers/doc/wp2011-01.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. de Ree, Joppe & Nillesen, Eleonora, 2009. "Aiding violence or peace? The impact of foreign aid on the risk of civil conflict in sub-Saharan Africa," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(2), pages 301-313, March.
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    Cited by:

    1. Esteban Ferro & Alberto Portugal-Perez & John S. Wilson, 2014. "Aid to the Services Sector: Does it Affect Manufacturing Exports?," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(4), pages 530-541, April.
    2. Mantobaye Moundigbaye & Clarisse Messemer & Richard W. Parks & W. Robert Reed, 2016. "Bootstrap Methods for Inference in the Parks Model," Working Papers in Economics 16/22, University of Canterbury, Department of Economics and Finance.
    3. Minasyan, Anna & Nunnenkamp, Peter, 2015. "Donors' openness to immigration and the effectiveness of foreign aid," Kiel Working Papers 1983, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
    4. Jaime DE MELO & Laurent WAGNER, 2016. "Aid for Trade and the Trade Facilitation Agreement: What they can do for LDCs," Working Papers P153, FERDI.
    5. Herzer, Dierk & Nowak-Lehmann, Felicitas & Dreher, Axel & Klasen, Stephan & Martinez-Zarzoso, Inmaculada, 2015. "Comment on Lof, Mekasha, and Tarp (2014)," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 389-396.
    6. Ehizuelen Michael Mitchell Omoruyi, 2016. "The Dragon's Goodwill: Examining China's External Finance and African Leaders' Preferentialism," Journal of International Commerce, Economics and Policy (JICEP), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 7(03), pages 1-30, October.
    7. Sebastian Galiani & Stephen Knack & Lixin Colin Xu & Ben Zou, 2017. "The effect of aid on growth: evidence from a Quasi-experiment," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 22(1), pages 1-33, March.
    8. Axel Dreher & Sarah Langlotz, 2015. "Aid and Growth. New Evidence Using an Excludable Instrument," CESifo Working Paper Series 5515, CESifo Group Munich.
    9. Jones, Sam & Tarp, Finn, 2016. "Does foreign aid harm political institutions?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 266-281.
    10. Calderon,Cesar & Nguyen,Ha Minh, 2015. "Do capital inflows boost growth in developing countries ? evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa," Policy Research Working Paper Series 7298, The World Bank.
    11. Olivier Cadot & Ana M. Fernandes & Julien Gourdon & Aaditya Mattoo, 2011. "Where to Spend the Next Million? Applying Impact Evaluation to Trade Assistance," World Bank Publications, The World Bank, number 16358.
    12. Askarov, Zohid & Doucouliagos, Hristos, 2015. "Aid and institutions in transition economies," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 55-70.
    13. Pascale COMBES MOTEL & Alassane DRABO & Martine AUDIBERT, 2013. "Health capital depreciation effects on development: theory and measurement," Working Papers 201310, CERDI.
    14. Minasyan, Anna, 2016. "Your development or mine? Effects of donor–recipient cultural differences on the aid-growth nexus," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 309-325.
    15. Askarov, Zohid & Doucouliagos, Hristos, 2015. "Development Aid and Growth in Transition Countries," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 383-399.
    16. Channing Arndt & Sam Jones & Finn Tarp, 2016. "What Is the Aggregate Economic Rate of Return to Foreign Aid?," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 30(3), pages 446-474.
    17. Roberto Burguet & Marcelo Soto, 2011. "Seeds of hope: Assessing the effect of development aid on the reduction of child mortality," UFAE and IAE Working Papers 890.11, Unitat de Fonaments de l'Anàlisi Econòmica (UAB) and Institut d'Anàlisi Econòmica (CSIC).
    18. Addison, Tony & Singhal, Saurabh & Tarp, Finn, 2013. "Aid to Africa: The Changing Context," WIDER Working Paper Series 144, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    19. Castells-Quintana, David, 2017. "Malthus living in a slum: Urban concentration, infrastructure and economic growth," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 158-173.
    20. Brückner, Markus & Gradstein, Mark, 2013. "Effects of transitory shocks to aggregate output on consumption in poor countries," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, pages 343-357.
    21. Dang, Hai-Anh & Knack, Stephen & Rogers, F. Halsey, 2013. "International aid and financial crises in donor countries," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 232-250.
    22. Andrea Filippo Presbitero, 2013. "Aid and Vulnerability," Mo.Fi.R. Working Papers 88, Money and Finance Research group (Mo.Fi.R.) - Univ. Politecnica Marche - Dept. Economic and Social Sciences.
    23. Askarov, Zohid & Doucouliagos, Hristos, 2015. "Spatial aid spillovers during transition," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 40(PA), pages 79-95.
    24. Adolfo Barajas & Ralph Chami & Christian H Ebeke & Sampawende J Tapsoba, 2012. "Workers’ Remittances; An Overlooked Channel of International Business Cycle Transmission?," IMF Working Papers 12/251, International Monetary Fund.
    25. Jessica Ochalek & James Lomas & Karl Claxton, 2015. "Cost per DALY averted thresholds for low- and middle-income countries: evidence from cross country data," Working Papers 122cherp, Centre for Health Economics, University of York.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    aid allocation; aid effectiveness; economic growth; simultaneity;

    JEL classification:

    • O1 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development
    • O2 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Development Planning and Policy
    • O4 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity

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