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Ältere am Arbeitsmarkt: Eine Vorausschau bis 2040 als Grundlage für wirtschaftspolitische Maßnahmen

Author

Listed:
  • Thomas Horvath
  • Walter Hyll
  • Helmut Mahringer

    (WIFO)

  • Hedwig Lutz

    (WIFO)

  • Martin Spielauer

    (WIFO)

Abstract

Die vorliegende Studie erarbeitet eine Abschätzung der künftigen Entwicklungen auf dem Arbeitsmarkt für ältere Personen. Dazu wird der Einfluss des Gesundheitszustands, der Ausbildung und anderer Faktoren auf die Erwerbskarriere analysiert und die Beschäftigungslage Älterer mit Hilfe eines dynamischen Mikrosimulationsmodells bis 2040 prognostiziert. Dieser Ansatz, welcher auf individuellen Erwerbskarrieren einer repräsentativen Stichprobe der Bevölkerung basiert, erlaubt eine Abschätzung künftiger Entwicklungstendenzen in Bezug auf Größe und Struktur der österreichischen Erwerbsbevölkerung. Die modellierten Übergänge zwischen den verschiedenen Erwerbszuständen hängen dabei neben Alter und Geschlecht von individuellen Gegebenheiten wie dem Gesundheitszustand, dem höchsten formalen Bildungsabschluss, aber auch der bisherigen Erwerbskarriere ab. Basierend auf detaillierten Analysen zur Auswirkung dieser Faktoren auf die Übergangschancen bzw. ‑risiken zwischen verschiedenen Erwerbspositionen simuliert das Modell künftige Entwicklungen des österreichischen Arbeitsmarktes, wobei auch regulatorische Veränderungen des Pensionssystems berücksichtigt werden.

Suggested Citation

  • Thomas Horvath & Walter Hyll & Helmut Mahringer & Hedwig Lutz & Martin Spielauer, 2022. "Ältere am Arbeitsmarkt: Eine Vorausschau bis 2040 als Grundlage für wirtschaftspolitische Maßnahmen," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 69701, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:wfo:wstudy:69701
    Note: With English abstract.
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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