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Die Handelseffekte der österreichischen EU-Mitgliedschaft 25 Jahre nach der Volksabstimmung

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  • Harald Oberhofer
  • Gerhard Streicher

Abstract

Am 12. Juni 1994 sprachen sich 66,6% der österreichischen Bevölkerung im Rahmen einer Volksabstimmung für einen Beitritt des Landes zur Europäischen Union aus. Am 1. Jänner 1995 trat Österreich der EU bei. 25 Jahre nach dieser Volksabstimmung versucht die vorliegende Studie die Handelseffekte und die damit einhergehenden Effekte der österreichischen EU-Mitgliedschaft auf BIP, Beschäftigung und Preise empirisch zu quantifizieren. Auf Basis eines Gravitationsmodells werden in einem ersten Schritt die Handelseffekte der österreichischen EU-Mitgliedschaft berechnet. Demnach tauscht Österreich langfristig mit den anderen EU-Mitgliedsländern um etwa 46% mehr Waren aus als in einer hypothetischen Situation ohne den Beitritt. Dieser Handelsimpuls wird in einem zweiten Schritt in das Input-Output-Modell des WIFO "Adagio" übertragen. Wie die Modellberechnungen zeigen, induzierte die österreichische EU-Mitgliedschaft durch die Steigerung des Außenhandels einen zusätzlichen jährlichen Wachstumsbeitrag von 0,7% des realen BIP.

Suggested Citation

  • Harald Oberhofer & Gerhard Streicher, 2019. "Die Handelseffekte der österreichischen EU-Mitgliedschaft 25 Jahre nach der Volksabstimmung," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 61796, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:wfo:wstudy:61796
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    Cited by:

    1. Elisabeth Christen & Klaus S. Friesenbichler & Alexander Hudetz & Claudia Kettner-Marx & Ina Meyer & Franz Sinabell, 2021. "Außenhandel und nachhaltige Entwicklung in Österreich. Befunde auf der Grundlage von vorliegenden Quellen," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 69290, February.
    2. Harald Oberhofer, 2019. "Die Handelseffekte von Österreichs EU-Mitgliedschaft und des Europäischen Binnenmarktes," WIFO Monatsberichte (monthly reports), WIFO, vol. 92(12), pages 883-890, December.
    3. Elisabeth Christen & Bettina Meinhart & Franz Sinabell & Gerhard Streicher, 2021. "Transportkostenwahrheit im internationalen Handel," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 67045, February.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • F17 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Forecasting and Simulation
    • F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies

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