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Early Warning System (EWS) of Currency Crises: An Empirical Study of Some SEACEN Countries

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  • Yih-Jiuan Wu
  • Tzung-Ta Yen
  • Pei-Wen Chen

Abstract

This paper investigates the macroeconomic factors in predicting the currency crises in a sample of 7 SEACEN countries using the logit econometric models. The empirical results indicate that the variables that may help predict the timing of the currency crises include real US interest rate, ratio of import to foreign reserves, real effective exchange rate, or money multiplier. In particular, the model that includes real US interest rate and ratio of import to foreign reserves can forecast better than other models for most of the 7 sample countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Yih-Jiuan Wu & Tzung-Ta Yen & Pei-Wen Chen, 2000. "Early Warning System (EWS) of Currency Crises: An Empirical Study of Some SEACEN Countries," Research Studies, South East Asian Central Banks (SEACEN) Research and Training Centre, number rp43, April.
  • Handle: RePEc:sea:rstudy:rp43
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Reuven Glick & Michael M. Hutchison, 1999. "Banking and currency crises; how common are twins?," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Sep.
    2. Klein, Michael W. & Marion, Nancy P., 1997. "Explaining the duration of exchange-rate pegs," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(2), pages 387-404, December.
    3. Carmen M. Reinhart & Graciela L. Kaminsky, 1999. "The Twin Crises: The Causes of Banking and Balance-of-Payments Problems," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(3), pages 473-500, June.
    4. Flood, Robert & Marion, Nancy, 1999. "Perspectives on the Recent Currency Crisis Literature," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 4(1), pages 1-26, January.
    5. Eichengreen, Barry & Rose, Andrew & Wyplosz, Charles, 1996. " Contagious Currency Crises: First Tests," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 98(4), pages 463-484, December.
    6. Jason Furman & Joseph E. Stiglitz, 1998. "Economic Crises: Evidence and Insights from East Asia," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 29(2), pages 1-136.
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