IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/zbw/kdijep/289786.html

China's slowdown

Author

Listed:
  • Eichengreen, Barry

Abstract

This paper evaluates explanations for China's growth slowdown. The natural tendency for rapidly growing economies to slow down is a major factor, along with problems bequeathed by unbalanced growth, including a declining ICOR, slowing total factor productivity growth, and rising indebtedness. A number of other mechanisms are of lesser importance: demographics, President Xi's centralization of political power and anti-corruption campaign, and U.S. export controls. Sustaining growth in the longer term will require China to step away from investment, debt and export-fueled growth in favor of a balanced growth model with household consumption playing a larger role. Doing so will require hardening of the budget constraints of regional and local governments and restructuring of the nonperforming debts of property and construction companies.

Suggested Citation

  • Eichengreen, Barry, 2024. "China's slowdown," KDI Journal of Economic Policy, Korea Development Institute (KDI), vol. 46(1), pages 1-19.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:kdijep:289786
    DOI: 10.23895/kdijep.2024.46.1.1
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/289786/1/1884146937.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.23895/kdijep.2024.46.1.1?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Chad Bown, 2020. "How the United States Marched the Semiconductor Industry into Its Trade War with China," East Asian Economic Review, Korea Institute for International Economic Policy, vol. 24(4), pages 349-388.
    2. Ricardo J. Caballero & Takeo Hoshi & Anil K. Kashyap, 2008. "Zombie Lending and Depressed Restructuring in Japan," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(5), pages 1943-1977, December.
    3. Kotschy, Rainer & Bloom, David, 2023. "Population Aging and Economic Growth: From Demographic Dividend to Demographic Drag?," CEPR Discussion Papers 18400, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    4. Martin Chorzempa, 2023. "How US chip controls on China benefit and cost Korean firms," Policy Briefs PB23-10, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Charles A.E. Goodhart & Dimitrios P. Tsomocos & Xuan Wang, 2023. "Support for small businesses amid COVID‐19," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 90(358), pages 612-652, April.
    2. Hamdi Jbir & Cornel Oros & Alexandra Popescu, 2024. "Macroprudential policy and financial system stability: an aggregate study," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 66(5), pages 1941-1973, May.
    3. Suarez, Javier & Sánchez Serrano, Antonio, 2018. "Approaching non-performing loans from a macroprudential angle," Report of the Advisory Scientific Committee 7, European Systemic Risk Board.
    4. Funke, Michael & Wende, Adrian, 2022. "Modeling semiconductor export restrictions and the US-China trade conflict," BOFIT Discussion Papers 13/2022, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).
    5. Fabio Panetta & Fabiano Schivardi & Matthew Shum, 2009. "Do Mergers Improve Information? Evidence from the Loan Market," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 41(4), pages 673-709, June.
    6. Kaoru Hosono & Koji Sakai & Kotaro Tsuru, 2009. "Consolidation of Banks in Japan: Causes and Consequences," NBER Chapters, in: Financial Sector Development in the Pacific Rim, pages 265-309, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Gerth Florian & Otsu Keisuke, 2018. "The post-crisis slump in Europe: a business cycle accounting analysis," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 18(1), pages 1-25, January.
    8. Chakrabarti, Prasenjit & Kaur, Jasmeet, 2024. "Zombie-lending during the pandemic in India: Did the Central Bank reduce credit misallocation concerns of forbearance?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 46(1), pages 153-170.
    9. Raphael Fischer & Gunther Schnabl, 2018. "Regional heterogeneity, the rise of public debt and monetary policy in post-bubble Japan: lessons for the EMU," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 15(2), pages 405-428, April.
    10. Kyoji Fukao, 2013. "Explaining Japan's Unproductive Two Decades," Asian Economic Policy Review, Japan Center for Economic Research, vol. 8(2), pages 193-213, December.
    11. Cheung, Jeff Kin Wai & Imai, Masami, 2024. "Zombie lending, labor hoarding, and local industry growth," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    12. Piotr Ciżkowicz & Andrzej Rzońca & Andrzej Torój, 2019. "In Search of an Appropriate Lower Bound. The Zero Lower Bound vs. the Positive Lower Bound under Discretion and Commitment," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 20(4), pages 1028-1053, November.
    13. Andrzej Rzonca & Piotr Cizkowicz, 2014. "The effects of unconventional monetary policy: what do central banks not include in their models? / Skutki niekonwencjonalnej polityki pieniê¿nej: czego banki centralne nie uwzglêdniaj¹w swoich modela," mBank - CASE Seminar Proceedings 131, CASE-Center for Social and Economic Research.
    14. De Veirman, Emmanuel & Levin, Andrew T., 2012. "When did firms become more different? Time-varying firm-specific volatility in Japan," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 578-601.
    15. Fabiano Schivardi & Enrico Sette & Guido Tabellini, 2022. "Credit Misallocation During the European Financial Crisis," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 132(641), pages 391-423.
    16. Inoue, Hitoshi & Nakashima, Kiyotaka & Takahashi, Koji, 2016. "Comment on Peek and Rosengren (2005) “Unnatural Selection: Perverse Incentives and the Allocation of Credit in Japan”," MPRA Paper 72726, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Viral V. Acharya & Matteo Crosignani & Tim Eisert & Christian Eufinger, 2024. "Zombie Credit and (Dis‐)Inflation: Evidence from Europe," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 79(3), pages 1883-1929, June.
    18. Shin-ichi Fukuda & Munehisa Kasuya & Jouchi Nakajima, 2005. "Deteriorating Bank Health and Lending in Japan: Evidence from Unlisted Companies Undergoing Financial Distress (Subsequently published in "Journal of the Asia Pacific Economy" Vo.11, No.4, D," CARF F-Series CARF-F-042, Center for Advanced Research in Finance, Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo.
    19. Ogura, Yoshiaki & Okui, Ryo & Saito, Yukiko Umeno, 2015. "Network-Motivated Lending Decisions," HIT-REFINED Working Paper Series 29, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
    20. Iyer, Rajkamal & Da-Rocha-Lopes, Samuel & Peydró, José-Luis & Schoar, Antoinette, 2014. "Interbank Liquidity Crunch and the Firm Credit Crunch: Evidence from the 2007-2009 Crisis," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 27(1), pages 347-372.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • E02 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - Institutions and the Macroeconomy
    • O10 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - General
    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:kdijep:289786. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/kdiiikr.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.