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The economic effects of a central bank reacting to house price inflation

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  • Baldi, Guido

Abstract

What are the economic effects of a central bank that takes the evolution of house prices into account? In an attempt to answer this question, we use a New Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with a housing sector to explore the economic impacts of a central bank reacting to house price inflation. We examine this in the context of two different shocks that are associated with two factors cited as possible underlying sources of the recent bubble in the housing market and the ensuing financial crisis. First, we allow for a positive shock to the household borrowing constraint. Second, we analyze the effects of a preference shock to housing. Our results indicate that these two shocks lead to a more pronounced increase in house prices and an expansion of the housing sector if the central bank does not react to house prices. If the central bank reacts to house price increases, it must accept lower output growth rates over the business cycle. We also show that welfare decreases if a central bank reacts to house price inflation. Because of these effects, a central bank may be reluctant to react to house price inflation.

Suggested Citation

  • Baldi, Guido, 2014. "The economic effects of a central bank reacting to house price inflation," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 26, pages 119-125.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:espost:209697
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    Cited by:

    1. Cengiz Tunc, 2020. "The Effect of Credit Supply on House Prices: Evidence From Turkey," Housing Policy Debate, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(2), pages 228-242, March.
    2. Yi Wu & Yunong Li, 2018. "Impact of government intervention in the housing market: evidence from the housing purchase restriction policy in China," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(6), pages 691-705, February.
    3. Bekiros, Stelios & Nilavongse, Rachatar & Uddin, Gazi Salah, 2020. "Expectation-driven house prices and debt defaults: The effectiveness of monetary and macroprudential policies," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 49(C).
    4. Nocera, Andrea & Roma, Moreno, 2017. "House prices and monetary policy in the euro area: evidence from structural VARs," Working Paper Series 2073, European Central Bank.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Housing Demand; House Prices; Interest Rates; Consumption and Saving;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • R21 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Housing Demand

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