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Four scenarios of the energy transition: Drivers, consequences, and implications for geopolitics

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  • Morgan Bazilian
  • Michael Bradshaw
  • Johannes Gabriel
  • Andreas Goldthau
  • Kirsten Westphal

Abstract

This opinion article offers insights into the geopolitics of the ongoing global energy transition. In doing so, it draws heavily on a workshop in Berlin in late 2018, and a subsequent paper in the journal Nature. Four scenarios are presented. First, the “Big Green Deal” offers a positive story of the future, under the assumption that there will be a multilateral approach to tackling climate change. Second, “Dirty Nationalism” explores the fallout of nations choosing to turn inward and pursue a short‐term, protectionist, and self‐interested agenda. Third, “Technology Breakthrough” illustrates how a technological leap forward could lead to a great power rivalry and distinct regional energy blocs. Finally, “Muddling On” investigates the outcome of an energy transition that reflect business as usual. By comparing and contrasting the different scenarios, the article highlights the potential winners and losers of the different scenarios, and the geopolitical consequences. It also sketches the implications for policy, theory, and scenario thinking more broadly. This article is categorized under: Integrated Assessment of Climate Change > Integrated Scenario Development The Carbon Economy and Climate Mitigation > Future of Global Energy

Suggested Citation

  • Morgan Bazilian & Michael Bradshaw & Johannes Gabriel & Andreas Goldthau & Kirsten Westphal, 2020. "Four scenarios of the energy transition: Drivers, consequences, and implications for geopolitics," Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 11(2), March.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:wirecc:v:11:y:2020:i:2:n:e625
    DOI: 10.1002/wcc.625
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. O'Sullivan, Meghan & Overland, Indra & Sandalow, David, 2017. "The Geopolitics of Renewable Energy," Working Paper Series rwp17-027, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government.
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    4. Andreas Goldthau & Kirsten Westphal, 2019. "Why the Global Energy Transition Does Not Mean the End of the Petrostate," Global Policy, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 10(2), pages 279-283, May.
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    5. Andreas Goldthau & Nick Sitter, 2021. "Horses for courses. The roles of IPE and Global Public Policy in global energy research [The profits of power: Commerce and realpolitik in Eurasia]," Policy and Society, Darryl S. Jarvis and M. Ramesh, vol. 40(4), pages 467-483.
    6. Gavin Bridge & Ludger Gailing, 2020. "New energy spaces: Towards a geographical political economy of energy transition," Environment and Planning A, , vol. 52(6), pages 1037-1050, September.
    7. Nikas, A. & Gambhir, A. & Trutnevyte, E. & Koasidis, K. & Lund, H. & Thellufsen, J.Z. & Mayer, D. & Zachmann, G. & Miguel, L.J. & Ferreras-Alonso, N. & Sognnaes, I. & Peters, G.P. & Colombo, E. & Howe, 2021. "Perspective of comprehensive and comprehensible multi-model energy and climate science in Europe," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 215(PA).
    8. Su, Chi-Wei & Wu, Ying & Qin, Meng, 2025. "Preserving energy security: Can renewable energy withstand the energy-related uncertainty risk?," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 320(C).
    9. Zhang, Ying & Liu, Baoliu & Xue, Jinjun & Chen, Yiming & Zhao, Fang, 2025. "Would geopolitical risks be the new driver of the energy transition? An empirical study on renewable energy technology innovation," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).
    10. Marco Siddi & Federica Prandin, 2023. "Governing the EU’s Energy Crisis: The European Commission’s Geopolitical Turn and its Pitfalls," Politics and Governance, Cogitatio Press, vol. 11(4), pages 286-296.
    11. Yan Li & Jun Wu & Xin-Ping Wang, 2025. "Research on the Diffusion of Green Energy Technological Innovation from the Perspective of International Cooperation," Energies, MDPI, vol. 18(11), pages 1-22, May.
    12. Shao, Yanmin & Li, Junlong, 2025. "When renewable energy technology products exports meet geopolitical risks: Can environmental policies sweeten the bitter pill of the trade?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    13. Chien, FengSheng & Vu, Trong Lam & Hien Phan, Thi Thu & Van Nguyen, Sang & Viet Anh, Nguyen Ho & Ngo, Thanh Quang, 2023. "Zero-carbon energy transition in ASEAN countries: The role of carbon finance, carbon taxes, and sustainable energy technologies," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 212(C), pages 561-569.
    14. Marco Siddi & Federica Prandin, 2023. "Governing the EU’s Energy Crisis: The European Commission’s Geopolitical Turn and its Pitfalls," Politics and Governance, Cogitatio Press, vol. 11(4), pages 286-296.

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