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Introducing the New ESG‐Based Sustainability Uncertainty Index (ESGUI)

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  • Serdar Ongan
  • Ismet Gocer
  • Cem Işık

Abstract

Rising uncertainties can affect countries' sustainability efforts. Therefore, this study develops and introduces a new ESG‐based sustainability uncertainty index (metric) called ESGUI for the first time. This new index is necessary to better analyze how uncertainties based on ESG (environmental, social, governance) factors, increasingly prominent in the modern business world, are reflected in investment processes. Accurate ESG risks are critical for investors and policymakers. To create this index, we employed text mining techniques on the Economist Intelligence Unit's monthly country reports, analyzing the frequency of ESG‐related keywords and uncertainty indicators. Specifically, the world uncertainty index was integrated into the ESG for 25 countries between 2002M11 and 2024M09. The index's reliability was validated through a vector autoregression model and cross‐referenced with control variables graphically. The findings indicate that the ESGUI exhibits significant correlations with existing measures such as the World Uncertainty Index (WUI) and Economic Policy Uncertainty (EPU) index, thus evidencing the index's robustness. This new index will help policymakers better manage sustainability uncertainties, develop sustainable economic policies, and help investors evaluate ESG‐related risks and opportunities more effectively.

Suggested Citation

  • Serdar Ongan & Ismet Gocer & Cem Işık, 2025. "Introducing the New ESG‐Based Sustainability Uncertainty Index (ESGUI)," Sustainable Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(3), pages 4457-4467, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:sustdv:v:33:y:2025:i:3:p:4457-4467
    DOI: 10.1002/sd.3351
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