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Nuclear Waste Management under Approaching Disaster: A Comparison of Decommissioning Strategies for the German Repository Asse II

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  • Patrick Ilg
  • Silke Gabbert
  • Hans‐Peter Weikard

Abstract

This article compares different strategies for handling low‐ and medium‐level nuclear waste buried in a retired potassium mine in Germany (Asse II) that faces significant risk of uncontrollable brine intrusion and, hence, long‐term groundwater contamination. We survey the policy process that has resulted in the identification of three possible so‐called decommissioning options: complete backfilling, relocation of the waste to deeper levels in the mine, and retrieval. The selection of a decommissioning strategy must compare expected investment costs with expected social damage costs (economic, environmental, and health damage costs) caused by flooding and subsequent groundwater contamination. We apply a cost minimization approach that accounts for the uncertainty regarding the stability of the rock formation and the risk of an uncontrollable brine intrusion. Since economic and health impacts stretch out into the far future, we examine the impact of different discounting methods and rates. Due to parameter uncertainty, we conduct a sensitivity analysis concerning key assumptions. We find that retrieval, the currently preferred option by policymakers, has the lowest expected social damage costs for low discount rates. However, this advantage is overcompensated by higher expected investment costs. Considering all costs, backfilling is the best option for all discounting scenarios considered.

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  • Patrick Ilg & Silke Gabbert & Hans‐Peter Weikard, 2017. "Nuclear Waste Management under Approaching Disaster: A Comparison of Decommissioning Strategies for the German Repository Asse II," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 37(7), pages 1213-1232, July.
  • Handle: RePEc:wly:riskan:v:37:y:2017:i:7:p:1213-1232
    DOI: 10.1111/risa.12648
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    1. Patrick Ilg & Silke Gabbert & Hans‐Peter Weikard, 2017. "Scenario Building and Sensitivity Analyses for Decision Support: A Response to D. Warner North," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 37(7), pages 1235-1236, July.
    2. Monika Foltyn-Zarychta, 2021. "Future-Generation Perception: Equal or Not Equal? Long-Term Individual Discount Rates for Poland," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(24), pages 1-19, December.
    3. Rafał Buła & Monika Foltyn-Zarychta, 2022. "Declining Discount Rates for Energy Policy Investments in CEE EU Member Countries," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(1), pages 1-27, December.

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